The Wisconsin Badgers are now the Big Ten’s primary hope of getting a team in the College Football Playoff. After Ohio State and Penn State both picked up their second loss last week, Wisconsin is the only team in the conference with the qualifications for a spot. The Badgers are sitting at 9-0 thanks to a very soft schedule, but give them credit for being one of the five remaining undefeated teams left in the nation. This week, they will have the opportunity to make their resume look better when the Iowa Hawkeyes come to town.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Saturday, November 11, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Iowa -12
Wisconsin +12
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
Sharps seem to love the Hawkeyes’ chances in this one. Wisconsin opened up as a 13.5-point favorite, but the spread is now 12. I expect this number to come down even further as kickoff gets closer due to Iowa’s strength of schedule. The Hawkeyes have already knocked off Iowa State, hammered Ohio State, and hung tough with both Penn State and Michigan State this season. Wisconsin hasn’t played an opponent of that caliber yet. Look for this line to drop below double digits before it closes.
The Badgers have alternated covers and losses all season long. Wisconsin is 5-4 ATS and got the cover against Indiana last week so if this trend follows it will come up short against Iowa this week. A surprisingly effective offense has meant that the over has been a good bet in Badgers games this season with the over going 6-3.
Iowa hasn’t been great against the number this season. The Hawkeyes are 4-4-1 ATS and would have lost you juice if you bet on them. However, none of those ATS losses came by more than four points so if you teased them in every game you wouldn’t have wagered on a loser yet. Additionally, when Iowa was a double-digit underdog against Ohio State and Penn State, the Hawkeyes were a last-second touchdown away from winning both games outright.
Key Injuries
Paul Chryst and the Badgers have some injury concerns heading into this game. Wisconsin’s leading receiver Quintez Cephus has already been ruled out with a leg injury. Cephus has been Alex Hornbrook’s go-to wide receiver this season and no other wideout has more than 14 receptions.
The defensive side of the ball has some potential problems too. Inside linebacker Chris Orr has been ruled out of this tilt as well, while star safety D’Cota Dixon is questionable. Dixon is the team’s leading tackler and not having him would be huge.
Letdown Effect
It seems like the main reason to not like the Hawkeyes in this game is because of a potential letdown effect. Iowa hammered Ohio State last week and has got to be feeling good after that performance. However, now the Hawkeyes have to go on the road, while Wisconsin was probably preparing for Iowa before facing Indiana last week.
Additionally, Iowa’s blowout victory was fueled in large part by turnovers. J.T. Barrett had an awful performance, throwing four interceptions in Kinnick Stadium, and that led to a lot of short fields for the Hawkeyes.
Free ATS Pick
The advanced metrics love the Badgers in this game and Bill Connelly’s Football Study Hall has Wisconsin as a 12.7-point favorite in this one. However, Iowa’s offense showed us something we had yet to see in its win over Ohio State last week, a competent ground game. The Hawkeyes pounded the ball on the Buckeyes defense and that was a large reason why they averaged almost seven yards per play.
I’m going to call for the Hawkeyes to pull off the outright upset in this one.
College Football Odds: Iowa 27, Wisconsin 20
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