The Kansas State Wildcats should be cautiously optimistic after a nice start to 2017. However, they will get a moment of reckoning when they face off against the Texas Longhorns in Week 6 of the regular season. The Big 12 matchup should help clear up if either team has the ability to be a contender in the conference.
Each team has had its ups and downs, but Texas seems to be putting things together. This could be a nice statement win for the Longhorns if they can cruise to the victory at home. The Wildcats are hoping to remain competitive and possibly even pull out the win.
This contest in Week 6 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 7, 2017, at 7 p.m. ET at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas State +3.5
Texas -3.5
Over/Under 50
Odds Analysis
Texas has the bigger following so the expectation is usually for most of the money to come in on the Longhorns, but that’s not the case this week. Bettors feel like this should be a close game and Kansas State is getting more than 64 percent of the action to cover the spread.
The scoring total is reasonably low based on the team’s defenses and the “under” is the more popular play currently, with more than 75 percent of the action choosing that side of the toal.
Kansas State is a +150 underdog on the moneyline and is getting the vast majority of the bets at those odds. Texas is -170 to win this game.
Key Stat
24. That’s the number of combined points Texas has allowed in regulation the past three games, as its defense has taken a big step forward. The unit was virtually nonexistent in its season opener when Maryland put up 51 points en route to an upset.
Texas turned around and shut out San Jose State, and then held USC to 17 points in regulation before eventually losing by a field goal in double overtime. The Longhorns then gave up only seven points to Iowa State last time out.
This turnaround by the defense is a huge reason why Texas has to be taken more seriously by its conference brethren moving forward. The Longhorns are facing a Kansas State team which has averaged 37.5 points per game in 2017 but traditionally doesn’t score that much.
The Wildcats have put up some big point totals against inferior non-conference opponents and could have more trouble in this one moving the ball consistently.
Player To Watch
Jesse Ertz -- The Kansas State quarterback could be the key to whether or not the Wildcats can pull the upset in this matchup. He has thrown for 706 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions on the season, although there has been a wide divide in his success against upper-tier and lower-tier competition.
Kansas State is 1-1 in games against Vanderbilt and Baylor the past two weeks. Against the Commodores, Ertz was just 10-of-28 for 76 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a 14-7 loss. The Wildcats beat Baylor last time out, although Ertz was only 7-of-17 for 119 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions.
Ertz hasn’t always gotten it done passing the ball, but he’s been electric with his legs. He rushed for 126 yards and a touchdown against Vanderbilt and added 95 yards and a score to help knock off Baylor.
Kansas State wants to get the aerial attack rolling against Texas, but if not, Ertz must make some plays with his legs.
Free ATS Pick
This game comes down to one thing: how much do bettors believe in Texas’ turnaround? The Longhorns are at home and have looked better of late, but Kansas State comes in with a senior quarterback who won’t be rattled by the crowd.
The bettors are on the right track. Take the Wildcats not only to cover this spread but to pull the upset behind a strong defensive effort.
College Football Odds: Kansas State 27, Texas 24
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