After getting thrashed at home by the Clemson Tigers last Saturday night, you can’t help but think the Kent State Golden Flashes will serve as nothing more than sacrificial lambs to the No. 19 Louisville Cardinals who are badly in need of a get well spot. That said, this is an awful lot of chalk linemakers are asking Bobby Petrino’s kids to eat, and the hangover effect could play an enormous role on how this game plays out.
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 23, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET from Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on the ACC Network.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kent State +38.5
Louisville -38.5
O/U 59
Odds Analysis
Hangover, schmangover! The betting public is having none of it with it going out and backing reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson with reckless abandon. The betting line for this Week 4 tilt originally opened with the Ville lined as hefty 38-point favorites. But the public was hungry for more chalk and bet the game up to -44 where it currently sits. Better than 76 percent of the betting handle expects Louisville to blow the doors off Kent State.
Kent State has scored a grand total of three points against the two FBS foes it faced. One of those teams was Clemson, and the Golden Flashes fell 56-3 as 38-point underdogs with the 59 points going over the 52-point total. This game’s total opened at 59 and has since been bet down to 56.5 with over 56 percent of the action riding the over.
Key Stat
74.3 – This is the amount of yards the trio of Nick Holley, Dustin Crum and George Bollas has averaged throwing for in the Golden Flashes first three games. That’s embarrassing! Louisville’s weakness defensively to date has been defending the pass evidenced last week after Clemson’s Kelly Bryant completed 22 of 32 passes for 316 yards and a touchdown to lead the defending champs to the decisive 26 point victory.
While Kent State is known more for its ground game, that too took a mighty hit last week when Holley went down with a knee injury that’s likely to keep him out of this contest. That means getting the best of the Cardinals Achilles Heel will come down to Crum and Bollas who’ve each seen very limited action. If Kent State is to put a single point on the board, it likely will come against the Cardinals backups who are sure to play a bulk of the second half.
Letdown Spot
No matter how you look at this game, it’s a major letdown spot for a Louisville team that had its ACC title and College Football Playoff hopes dashed once the clock reached double zeroes last week. While there’s no doubt the Ville is the better team and the Golden Flashes are overmatched, you can’t ignore the psychological angle which just might find Petrino’s kids looking to go through the motions and get out of dodge.
Louisville won’t impress anyone by winning this game 38-3 or 100-0. Especially after what went down last week. If you’re backing the Cardinals, just know that you’ll be banking on freshman quarterback Jawon Pass to bring it on home.
Free ATS Pick
I’m going to recommend fading the masses here and backing the ugly dog in this contest. I just can’t envision Louisville going all out to take their frustrations out an opponent it knows it’s clearly superior to. Lamar Jackson is no doubt going to get his. So too will Malik Williams and Reggie Bonnafon who get the benefit of running up against the nation’s No. 120 ranked rush defense. But these guys won’t be in the game for long, and it wouldn’t shock me if Petrino hooks them early to allow for the second and third stringers to get some much needed experience. That levels the playing field enough for me to back an ugly dog a majority of the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with.
College Football Odds: Cardinals 45, Golden Flashes 9
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