College Football ATS Picks - Kentucky at South Carolina Game Preview

The SEC East is littered with a bunch of decent teams this season. Decent is a term you don’t want to hear when speaking of one of the toughest conferences in college football. That means the division is entirely up for grabs, and whoever wants it most will likely be able to take it. That’s exactly what the Kentucky Wildcats and South Carolina Gamecocks will attempt to do on Saturday night when the division rivals lock horns in their respective SEC openers.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 3 game is set for Saturday, September 16, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Williams-Brice Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on the SEC Network.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Kentucky +7.5
South Carolina -7.5
O/U 54.5

Odds Analysis

Neither of these offenses have impressed through the first couple weeks. With that, it comes as no surprise to see the total take a tumble since first opening at 54.5. Just over 57 percent of the betting handle has come in on the low side of the total pushing it all the way down to its current placement of 50.5. Public and sharp money has driven this number down due to both squads not doing much in the way of denting scoreboards. This game marks the lowest total between these schools since 2011.

Even though 70-plus percent of the tickets written thus far are backing the home team, the betting line currently sits at -6 in favor of the Gamecocks after initially opening at -7.5. That could have to do with Kentucky besting South Carolina the last time it paid Columbia a visit and won outright as touchdown underdogs. It also has to do with the betting public not believing in Wil Muschamp’s offense. The line trickling back up to -7 come kickoff wouldn’t be surprising.

Key Stat

+2 – This is the turnover margin both the Wildcats and Gamecocks have tallied through two games played. Both teams have done an excellent job of forcing turnovers, and limiting them themselves. In a game that’s expected to be of the lower scoring variety, valuing possession of the pigskin will be of utmost importance. Kentucky got away with losing the turnover battle 2-0 last season in the 17-10 win and cover as short 2.5-point favorites. The Gamecocks inability to make good on those turnovers proved costly, and that’s something the coaching staff will have likely reminded their kids about all week. Whichever team ends up winning, turnovers will have played a large role as to why.

Matchup to Watch

The Wildcats enter this tilt with some shady rankings on the defensive side of the ball. The 58.5 yards per game they held their first two opponents are overrated mostly due to the caliber of opposition faced. Southern Miss is in rebuild mode and Eastern Kentucky is, well, Eastern Kentucky. Still, the Wildcats needed to come back from a six-point deficit in the third quarter just to pull out the win as 33-point favorites. The Golden Eagles currently rank No. 98 in rushing offense. South Carolina went up against a pair of run defenses with pulses in Mizzou and NC State and had an extremely tough time of it. This could be a major step down for the duo of Ty’Son Williams and Rico Dowdle, and if they’re able to impose their will, SC should be able to have their way with Jake Bentley having his best game of the young season.

Free ATS Pick

Williams-Brice will be rocking for this prime time clash. The Gamecocks are undefeated and won both games on the road as underdogs. Muschamp has got this team playing well beyond what the box scores dictate, and I foresee them taking it to a Kentucky squad that’s looked dreadful in less than inspiring wins against opponents they really should have dominated. Jake Bentley is growing up right before our eyes, and I foresee him blowing up in front of his frenzied fan base. The Cocks have gotten it done with defense and special teams, but I think this Kentucky defense is ripe for the offense to finally take advantage of. South Carolina has dropped each of the last three meetings with the Wildcats and only managed one cover one of the last four. The fact that they closed a field goal underdog in Lexington last season and opened better than a touchdown favorite is very telling. I’m not buying the line move either. SC is the way to go in this one!

College Football Odds: Gamecocks 34, Wildcats 20

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