As memorable a season the Louisville Cardinals had a season ago, it’s been an entirely different story in 2017-18 with Bobby Petrino’s squad bringing up the rear of the Atlantic Division in amassing just four wins through seven tries. Florida State is still trying to find itself offensively since losing Deondre Francois for the season, and because of it, Jimbo Fisher’s kids are yet to cover a single pointspread. That could all change in this game with the Redbirds bringing with them to Tallahassee the worst defense the Noles will have run up against to date.
This matchup in Week 8 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 21, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Doak Campbell Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cardinals +7
Seminoles -7
O/U 59.5
Odds Analysis
Though it enters this tilt losers of two straight and failing to cover each of its last five games, the betting public has sided with Louisville in early betting. The Cardinals originally opened up as touchdown road dogs, but that line has since fallen to -6.5 in favor of the Seminoles with just over 56 percent of the betting handle riding the visitors. Personally, I’m hoping this line dips even more with public money looking to continue fading a FSU team that enters 0-1-2 as favorites.
The total has seen a bit of reverse line movement with it falling to 58 even though over 71 percent of the betting handle is taking the over for a spin. Louisville still possesses one heck of an offense led by reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, but the Noles only give up an average of 20.8 points per game. These teams have played to overs in each of their last three meetings, so I wouldn’t be surprised if end of the week over money pushes the line back up.
Player to Watch
James Blackman – It’s been far from smooth sailing for the freshman since being thrust into a starting role. He’s only thrown for 799 yards and owns a 5:4 TD/INT ratio. That said, he’s run up against pass defenses ranked No. 120, No. 34, No. 38 and No. 47. The start against NC State was the first of his collegiate career, and he did well in throwing for 278 yards and a touchdown. Now he gets the benefit of throwing into the Cardinal’s No. 80 ranked pass defense that gives up an average of 231.9 yards per game at 13.1 yards per completion. Should FSU’s ground game also get going versus the Cardinals leaky pass defense, the freshman could be in line for his biggest showing of the season.
Revenge Angle
After suffering double-digit defeats in its two previous meetings with the Seminoles, the Cards exhausted all their pent up aggression on the Noles in pounding them 63-20 as 1-point Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium underdogs last September. Jackson accounted for five total touchdowns, and the Cardinals also scored on a punt return to secure the impressive 43-point victory. FSU had won the team’s two previous meetings as ACC rivals and covered both with relative ease. Memories from that beat down still loom large in Tallahassee, so it’s safe to say this game has been circled on the Noles’ schedule for quite some time.
Free ATS Pick
FSU saw its playoff chances come to a crashing thud only three weeks into last season. Numerous players have been quoted that game prep for this matchup has been taken to a new level because of it. Revenge is a dish best served cold, and you have to imagine Florida State brings its “A” game to the Doak on Saturday afternoon. I’m expecting the Noles to have themselves a good ‘ol time in this one. The offense is finally running up against a stop unit it will likely be able to take advantage of, while the defense will be hell-bent on stopping whatever Jackson attempts to throw their way. Look for both sides to score their fair share of points, but in the end, look for the Noles to do just a bit more to get out of dodge with the win and cover.
College Football Odds: Seminoles 38, Cardinals 24
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