College Football ATS Picks - Louisville at North Carolina State Game Preview

The second-best team in what is perhaps the best division in football will be determined on Thursday night when the Louisville Cardinals take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack. With Florida State struggling and Clemson dominating, both Louisville and North Carolina State have an outside chance at a New Year’s Day Bowl bid. Each team is 4-1 coming into this game and ranked in the AP Top 25, but a loss will likely send one of the two careening out of the rankings.

Watch this regular season Week 6 matchup live on Thursday, October 5, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Louisville -1
North Carolina State +1
Over/Under Check Back Later

Odds Analysis

North Carolina State didn’t pick up its first cover of the season until it upset Florida State in Tallahassee two weeks ago. The Wolfpack lost outright to South Carolina in a strange game at the start of the season, and didn’t do enough to cover against Marshall or Furman. They didn’t cover this past Saturday against Syracuse either. NC State jumped out to a 26-7 lead, but allowed Syracuse to get back in it and the eventual eight point victory did not cover the number.

The Cardinals have yet to cover a game this year. Despite being 4-1 with wins by 39 points and 45 points over the last two weeks, Vegas has been making Louisville too much of a favorite and the underdog covered in both of those games. It’s a testament to this team’s high-powered offense that Sin City still thinks highly of them although they are 0-4-1 ATS.

Player to Watch

Any time that the reigning Heisman Trophy winner is playing, you have to preview him. Lamar Jackson has been incredible this year, and though he probably won’t win another Heisman, he can still lead Louisville to a 10-win season.

Jackson is the key to the offense and has put up phenomenal numbers in 2017. He has improved as a passer, completing 64 percent of his passes through five games, and isn’t afraid to go deep either. Jackson is averaging 9.4 yards per pass this season, and his passing numbers are up across the board.

He continues to be a terror with his legs as well. Jackson has run for over 100 yards in three of five games this season and is averaging 6.1 yards a run. He might be the most valuable player to his team’s success in college football as everything runs through him.

Matchup to Watch

Unfortunately for Louisville, this defense has not been good this season. Their numbers have been helped recently because of blowout wins over Kent State and Murray State, but the Cardinals allowed Purdue and North Carolina to rack up the yards and the points. Clemson shredded this team for over 600 yards too and NC State’s offense has got to be excited for this one.

The Wolfpack are very efficient on offense. They don’t dazzle you in any one phase, but their goal is to hold the ball longer than their opponent. NC State is 16^th in the country in time of possession and to that end, they have a near 50-50 run-pass split. This team has been very good at holding on to the ball too. Ryan Finley has yet to throw an interception as OC Eliah Drinkwitz always seems to have an underneath option available for him to check down to.

Free ATS Pick

North Carolina State will be a popular upset pick in this one. Louisville has struggled along the offensive line and NC State has a great defensive line, and the Wolfpack are playing at home.

However, there are two key things everyone is overlooking. First, Louisville had a relative bye week last week against Murray State and has likely been prepping for this one since losing to Clemson three weeks ago. Second, NC State is on a short week after playing Syracuse. Syracuse ran 107 plays in that game and the defense looked gassed at the end. The short turnaround time will lead to tired legs and bring Louisville a win.

College Football Odds: Louisville 34, North Carolina State 27

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