This is the game that the LSU Tigers’ coaching staff has been waiting for all year. The inability of Les Miles to beat Alabama was one of the biggest reasons behind his eventual dismissal and Ed Orgeron put a plan in place to make sure that didn’t happen to him. Orgeron copied the blueprint laid out by Dabo Swinney at Clemson and kept defensive coordinator Dave Aranda on staff and brought in offensive guru Matt Canada to run the offense.
LSU had some bumps with the plan in the early going, but this team is looking just as good as it did during the Les Miles era. Now, if only they can go into Tuscaloosa and knock off the Alabama Crimson Tide, they will get everyone to buy in.
This matchup in Week 10 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 4, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. This game will be broadcast on CBS.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
LSU +21
Alabama -21
Over/Under 48.5
Odds Analysis
For the first time in almost 25 years, Alabama is a 20-point favorite heading into this game. The last time that happened, LSU pulled off a shocking upset, but early money has pushed the line up from where it opened at.
LSU covered the spread easily in its opener against BYU, but didn’t cover another spread until it’s come from behind win against Auburn two weeks ago. Last week, in a letdown lookahead scenario, LSU went into Oxford and took care of business against Ole Miss and covered too.
The Crimson Tide have been the steamroller we’ve expected all season long. Only one opponent has stayed within two scores of the Tide this season, but they are only 4-4 ATS because they have been favored by at least 19.5 points in eight of their nine games.
Matchup to Watch
In the past, this game has been about running the football and relying on your defense to not break. That plan didn’t work out too well for Miles during his time at LSU because no one has been able to beat Bama by playing their game.
That means it’s up to Danny Etling and Myles Brennan to find a way to beat Alabama. Etling is going to play the bulk of the game even though he is suffering from injuries to his ribs and ankle, but Brennan will see a possession or two as well. Canada will use a lot of motion to try to find mismatches against this secondary, but that’s a lot easier said than done when you are playing Alabama.
Key Stat
Unlike years past, you can actually run on LSU this season. The Tigers have a middle of the pack run defense and allowed huge chunks of yardage on the ground to Mississippi State, Troy, Auburn, and Ole Miss.
That’s not good when you are gearing up to play Alabama. Nick Saban wants to pound the ball into the line as much as possible in this game and will rely on his stable of running backs to churn out big chunks of yards on the ground.
Free ATS Pick
It’s easy to get suckered into thinking taking the points is a good bet here. These games have been notoriously close and hard fought, but Alabama always finds ways to come out on top.
This LSU team just isn’t that good though. The Tigers had to rally from a big deficit to beat on Auburn and only barely managed to beat a bad Florida team that Georgia just pasted. Saban is going to want to make a statement in this one and show how far removed these two programs still are. The Tide will roll in a total rout of the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.
College Football Odds: Alabama 38, LSU 7
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