The LSU Tigers enter Week 6 one of the most embarrassed teams in the country. It paid Troy University $1 million dollars to come down to Baton Rouge and play the part of the sacrificial lamb. Instead, Ed Orgeron’s kids lost outright 24-21 as decided favorites and then got trolled by the Trojans on social media immediately after. It’s safe to say they won’t take to The Swamp gridiron in the best of moods for this revenge bout with the Florida Gators who also went into Tigers Stadium and won last season as big underdogs.
This matchup in Week 6 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 7, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on CBS.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
LSU +4.5
Florida -4.5
O/U 48.5
Odds Analysis
The betting public expects the Tigers to put their best foot forward in this one. At least the big money that hammered the 4.5-point opener down to -3 does. Each side has a number of injuries it’s currently dealing with. None more so than Florida who lost the better of its two quarterbacks in Luke Del Rio for the foreseeable future. There was a reason why Feleipe Franks was benched in the first place. Still, I don’t foresee this line going down much further with nearly 64 percent of the handle riding the Gators.
These teams played to an ugly 16-10 final a season ago with the defenses hogging the spotlight. Turnovers cost the Tigers dearly in that game. Early indicators are that the betting public expects another ugly affair to play out with a tick under 70 percent of the handle pouncing on the under. The 48.5-point opener is down three points because of it, and the expected hot humid weather will only make it tougher for both sides to put points on the board.
Matchup to Watch
The play of LSU up front on the defensive side of the ball will go a long way in deciding the victor of this matchup. It’s paramount that the Tigers get into the backfield to harass whichever quarterback is under center when LSU actually forces Florida to pass the ball. It won’t happen much with the Gators likely to run both Malik Davis and Lamical Perine into the ground in an attempt to wear the Tigers defense down. With the Tigers likely to struggle offensively, they must make good on those downs to do their part in limiting the defense’s time on the field.
Player to Watch
Darrel Williams – If Derrius Guice is unable to go, the backfield will belong to Williams who will need to take his game to the next level to give his teammates a shot at avenging last year’s home defeat to the Gators. He showed well in the Syracuse game when Guice originally succumbed to injury rushing for 92 yards and a score on 16 carries. Unfortunately, he failed to rise to the occasion in last week’s start against Troy after rushing for just 69 yards on 17 attempts. If he’s able to find success against Florida’s No. 60 ranked rush defense, it will make life much easier for Danny Etling to attack the weak link of the home team’s stop unit.
Free ATS Pick
There’s not a doubt in my mind that LSU will put forth a much better semblance of themselves on Saturday afternoon. Unfortunately, I still don’t think it will be enough to go into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and come out victorious. This isn’t going to be a pretty game. In fact, it might set offensive football back a few decades. Regardless, Florida has found ways to win games like that time and time again. Look for Florida to eventually wear out LSU’s front wall on both sides of the ball. The Tigers are thin on the offensive line, and the offense’s inability to move the chains will ultimately diminish the defense’s ability to hold up in the heat during the late stages of the game. Look for the Gators to hold serve and look to tackle one last road block before turning their attention to the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party with the Dawgs.
College Football Odds: Gators 22, Tigers 14
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