College Football ATS Picks - LSU at Mississippi State Game Preview

SEC West action is set to kick off for both the No. 12 LSU Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs when the programs collide under the ESPN lights on Saturday night with cowbells likely to blare well into the night. The Bayou Bengals have dominated the recent rivalry, but Dan Mullen’s kids have come out the pointspread victor in each of the last three meetings. That said, the Bulldogs haven’t beaten LSU in Starkville since 1999.

This contest in Week 3 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 16, 2017, at 7 p.m. ET at Davis Wade Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on ESPN.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

LSU -7
Mississippi State +7
O/U 51.5

Odds Analysis

The betting public expects the Tigers dominance of the Bulldogs to continue. Since opening as 6.5-point road chalk, the number has since jumped up to -7 with -115 juice attached to it. Over 60 percent of the betting handle is currently riding the visitors, but it looks to be public money. Savvy bettors are likely waiting for the number to jump to 7.5 before hammering. The window to do so will likely be small, so hit it like you mean it if the hook ever shows up.

The total has dropped a half point to 51.5 after opening up at 52 with a whopping 80 percent of the tickets written hitting the low side of the number. Each of the last two matchups have been of the lower scoring variety, so the action looks to be playing to the recent series trend.

Last Meeting

The Tigers won a second straight hard fought affair last season at home where they pulled out the 23-20 win, but grossly failed to cover the closing 13-point spread. Danny Etling completed 19 of 30 passes for 215 yards and a touchdown, while Leonard Fournette proved to be the Bulldog killer rushing for 147 yards and a couple scores. He’s no longer on the roster, but Derrius Guice is and he only managed five carries for 19 yards. Nick Fitzgerald completed half his 24 passes for 120 yards, but was simply shut down by the Tigers on the ground averaging just one yard over 13 carries.

The 23-20 win was LSU’s ninth triumph in the last 10 meetings, but it will enter this tilt having failed to cover each of the last three matchups. The under has cashed in each of the last two with an average of 41.5 points hitting the board.

Matchup to Watch

If the Bulldogs are to actually make a game of this, they’re going to have to figure out a way to solve the riddle that has been LSU’s No. 1 ranked rush defense. The Tigers held BYU to -5 rushing yards in their season opener, and followed it up by giving up just 68 yards on 27 carries to overmatched Chattanooga. Through two games, Dave Aranda’s stop unit is giving up a measly 31.5 rushing yards per game. Good for the nation’s No. 1 overall ranking.

Aeris Williams and Kylin Hill have averaged 6.5 yards per carry or better to date, but gashing the defenses of Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech will prove to be a lot easier than what they’ll face this week. Fitzgerald has been the Bulldogs best runner, but he was shut down by the Tigers in last year’s matchup. His ability to find holes in LSU’s stout front will go a long way towards keeping his squad competitive. If not, LSU will cruise to its tenth win in 11 tries in Starkville.

Free ATS Pick

Mississippi State currently sits outside the top-25 looking in. It faces a daunting schedule over the next three weeks with LSU, Georgia and Auburn all lined up. This game against the Tigers will be the only to take place in the comforts of Starkville, so if Mullen’s kids are to make any type of noise in the SEC, it has to start now and in this game. I get why the betting public is enamored with LSU in this spot with Ed Orgeron’s kids a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four on the road and 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 trips to Starkville. However, each of the last two matchups between these programs have been knock ‘em out drag down affairs, and I expect this nationally televised battle to play out no differently.

College Football Odds: Tigers 27, Bulldogs 24

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