College Football ATS Picks - Maryland at Texas Game Preview

The Texas Longhorns aren’t used to being considered an also-ran. This has been a lost decade for Texas football as the school has lost at least four games in every season this decade. Charlie Strong was hired to fix things, but failed to even tally a winning record in three seasons on the job in Austin. Now, it’s Tom Herman’s show and he is expected to turn things around quickly. That starts in the Longhorns’ season opener against the Maryland Terrapins.

Kickoff for this college football Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 2, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. The game will be broadcast on FS1.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Maryland +18.5
Texas -18.5
Over/Under 56

Odds Analysis

With Strong’s job on the line, the Longhorns failed to win as a favorite in each of the team’s last three games in 2016. The nail in the coffin was a 24-21 loss to Kansas as a 23.5-point favorite in the penultimate game of the season. Under was a great bet in Texas games last year with each of the last seven games going under the number.

Maryland’s first season under DJ Durkin started with a bang and ended with a whimper. The Terrapins won their first four games of the season against weak competition, but got hammered by every decent Big Ten team they faced. They went just 4-8 ATS on the year and scored just 13 points in a three-game stretch where they played Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska near the end of the year.

Coaching Angle

Herman has been the hottest name in coaching the last two offseasons after what he did during his time at Houston. He came to Houston as a hotshot coordinator under Urban Meyer at Ohio State and quickly found success. He beat big programs like Florida State, Oklahoma, and Louisville (twice), during his time there and established a reputation as a giant killer.

He will bring his offensive philosophy to Texas and Shane Buechele could have a fantastic year under his watch. Buechele had a very promising freshman season for the Longhorns and should succeed in Herman’s system.

As for Durkin, he is known for both his recruiting prowess and his solid defenses. He has already done a better job of recruiting at Maryland than Randy Edsall did and the defense should be better in his second year on the job.

Key Stats

Maryland is due for some turnover luck. This team has been dreadfully unlucky each of the past two seasons with a combined -25 turnover differential. The Terrapins defense just hasn’t been able to force the turnovers that they need in order to succeed. That should start to change with Durkin shaping the program the way he wants it more and more.

Sacks killed Maryland last season. Maryland allowed 49 sacks in 2016 and it’s hard to win games when you are constantly on the back foot like that. That’s doubly so for a team that wanted to run the ball as much as Maryland did.

This line does have a lot of talent, but injuries have really shaken the unit. Left tackle Derwin Gray and left guard Sean Christie have each struggled to stay on the field and there is little depth behind those two.

Free ATS Pick

There’s a lot of optimism in the air about Herman. This spread is a reflection of that. While Herman is probably the right man for the job, this is a rather large number to cover against a decent opponent in Texas’ first game in a new system. There are bound to be some hiccups and with the questions revolving around the Longhorns’ running game, the Terps at this number are a good bet.

College Football Odds: Longhorns 28, Terrapins 20

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