The nascent rivalry between the Memphis Tigers and the Houston Cougars has been one of the best young rivalries among Group of Five teams. These have been two of the top three teams in the AAC West over the last few years, and the road to the West has typically gone through one of these schools. This year, both teams are 2-1 in conference, and Memphis is in the driver’s seat for the AAC West crown after knocking off Navy last week. Yet the Cougars are short favorites and many are picking them to pull off the upset.
This matchup in Week 8 of the regular season will take place on Thursday, October 19, 2017,
at 8 p.m. ET at TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Memphis +2
Houston -2
Over/Under Check Back Later
Odds Analysis
Houston got blitzed by Tulsa last week. Three Kyle Postma turnovers proved to be huge as Tulsa picked up a fumble return for a touchdown, and started eventual touchdown drives from the Houston 1 and the Houston 6 off of them. Tulsa was content to just keep the ball on the ground and that eventually wore out Houston’s defense.
Memphis was a little fortunate in its win against previously ranked Navy last week. The Tigers needed five Zach Abey turnovers in order to squeak out a three-point win, despite a solid game through the air for Riley Ferguson. This team has been able to win some wild games this year, knocking off UCLA and holding on in a wild one against Louisiana-Monroe.
Player to Watch
Ferguson is the maestro of Memphis’ offense, and has had some phenomenal games this season. He came up huge in the wins over Connecticut, UCLA, and Navy, but his three picks cost the team dearly against UCF, and inaccuracy in the opener almost led to a stunning loss to Louisiana-Monroe.
When he is on, he is on though. Ferguson has a big arm and can make all the throws needed to succeed at the next level. He was fantastic as a junior last season, but has been a little more inconsistent this year in spite of having a receiver having a breakout year.
Anthony Miller has been one of the most productive receivers in college ball this year. He has hauled in 45 passes for 606 yards and nine touchdowns and had a breakout game against UCLA. The Ferguson to Miller combination is one that the Cougars secondary has to fear.
Matchup to Watch
One of the key battles in this game is what Kyle Postma will be able to do against this secondary. Postma replaced Kyle Allen as the starter a few weeks ago, but has not performed much better than Allen to this point. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and is averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt.
Memphis has one of the worst pass defenses in the country and Houston should be able to have some success through the air. The Tigers had one of the five worst pass defenses in terms of passing yards allowed per game before they played Navy, and the unit still ranks outside the top 100.
If Houston can’t throw the ball on this defense, it’s hard to imagine the Cougars pulling off the upset.
Free ATS Pick
The over is something to keep an eye on when a total comes out later in the week for this one. When it comes to a side, this feels like a toss-up, but there’s a reason the home team is favored. Houston has a great homefield advantage and its defense should be more well-rested than Memphis’ this week. Opponents don’t fare well the week after playing Navy, and Memphis will struggle a little more on the defensive end.
College Football Odds: Houston 38, Memphis 33
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