The Miami Hurricanes will have a chance to finally get the monkey off their back this week in the state capital. The Florida State Seminoles have dominated their rivalry this decade. FSU has won seven straight meetings between these two teams and ripped Miami’s heart out in each of the last three. The Seminoles won those games by a combined 10 points and the close losses discouraged the Hurricanes for the rest of the season. For FSU, it’s a shot at tying up the all-time series. Miami is up 31-30 all-time, but a win brings the Noles level and leads to the longest winning streak for either side in the rivalry.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 6 game is set for Saturday, October 7, 2017, at 3:30 p.m.
ET at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami -3
Florida State +3
Over/Under 48.5
Odds Analysis
Florida State has yet to pick up a cover this season. Its offense has really struggled since starting quarterback Deondre Francois was lost for the season in the opener against Alabama and that has bled over into its first two conference games. FSU is averaging just 18 PPG and with that stellar defense, it has meant that all three of its games have gone under the total.
The Hurricanes are ranked and ready to avenge the past for what their alumni couldn’t do. Miami is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on the season and has won each of its three games by at least three scores. However, Miami has yet to score a marquee win. Its most impressive win came against a decent Duke team on the road, but its safe to say that FSU presents more of a challenge.
Matchup to Watch
Can FSU’s offensive line block Miami? That is the big key for FSU in this game. The Seminoles offensive line has been derided as the worst offensive line of any power conference team in the nation. Florida State comes into the game with one of the ten worst run games in the country, averaging less than 100 yards per game. That’s despite having a stable of running backs considered by many to be one of the best units in all the land.
Miami’s run defense has been stout, but not particularly great considering who it has played. The Hurricanes are allowing 3.5 yards per carry and their run defense ranks 46th in the nation according to the NCAA.
If Florida State can run on Miami, the Seminoles will probably pull off the upset. However, if they can’t, James Blackman will have to throw the ball to a mediocre group of receivers, and that spells trouble for FSU.
Player to Watch
Despite his inexperience, Malik Rosier has looked sharp in his first season as the full-time quarterback for Miami. There were doubts about how good he would be as he really struggled when he had the job two years ago, but he has played very well so far.
Rosier is averaging 9.1 yards per pass this season and is completing over 65 percent of his passes as well. He has also thrown four times as many touchdowns as interceptions, and is a mobile threat too when called upon. Rosier isn’t the quarterback that Brad Kaaya was, but has been good enough for the Canes.
Free ATS Pick
This has all the makings of a low scoring, back and forth affair that isn’t decided until the last possession. Florida State has an elite defense, but it hasn’t played like it yet this season. Against Miami, this defense will show how good it is. Yet, the offense won’t be able to do enough to get FSU the win. That will put Miami in the driver’s seat for the ACC Atlantic and set up a showdown against Georgia Tech next week.
College Football Odds: Miami 17, Florida State 10
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