The Miami Hurricanes only need to win two more games to claim a spot in the College Football Playoff. It’s been a season to remember for the Hurricanes, who needed last-minute touchdowns to beat Florida State and Georgia Tech, but have come on strong in recent weeks. Miami crushed Virginia Tech and Notre Dame and then rallied to beat Virginia in a letdown situation. Now, the Hurricanes must travel north for the first time in a month. They better bring their warm weather gear when they take on the Pittsburgh Panthers this week.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Friday, November 24, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami -13.5
Pittsburgh +13.5
Odds Analysis
Miami’s defense has been the key to its success this season. The Hurricanes have been solid on that end all season long with players jockeying for possession of the lauded Turnover Chain. Miami is tied with UCF for having the best turnover ratio in the nation with the defense forcing 27 turnovers. This defense has given up just 4.8 yards per play this season as well. That has led to the under going 8-2 in Miami games this season.
It’s been a tough season for the Pittsburgh Panthers. A loss to North Carolina two weeks ago practically eliminated Pitt from postseason contention and Virginia Tech made it official this last weekend. However, that doesn’t mean this team has stopped fighting. The Panthers actually had 4th and goal on the Hokies’ two-yard line with a chance to win the game last week, but were stopped short. They have covered three of their last four.
Matchup to Watch
After the Hurricanes lost Mark Walton for the season due to an injury, Miami really struggled to run the ball. That led to the Hurricanes having to hold on for narrow victories against Georgia Tech and North Carolina.
That was a big reason why experts gave them little chance to get past Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. However, the ground game came up big in those games with Travis Homer leading the way. Homer is now averaging 6.5 yards per carry this season and torched both the Hokies and Irish defense.
If Pittsburgh is going to knock off Miami, it needs to be able to stop the run. The Panthers have given up just 4.3 yards per carry this season and that’s pretty decent considering the quality of competition they have faced. Malik Rosier has yet to consistently beat teams with his arm and the key for Pitt will be to force him to beat them.
Key Stat
This decade, Pitt has always been about running the ball. The Panthers have had some great running backs come through over the last 10 years and were able to run the ball extremely well last year.
However, this season has been a different story. This offense is averaging less than four yards a run this season and lacks the playmaker that it had in the past. It looked like they had found one in Darrin Hall after he ran for over 100 yards on Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina in successive weeks, but he was stonewalled by the Hokies defense.
The lack of solid quarterback play has meant that the backs are running into seven- and eight-man fronts. Pat Narduzzi seems ready to turn to freshman Kenny Pickett after his solid outing last week against Virginia Tech, and Pickett better be ready against this defense.
Free ATS Pick
The Hurricanes lucked out a little bit when it comes to the weather. Friday looks to be sunny with no chance of rain or snow, and that’s good news for a team that is filled with kids from the Sunshine State. This line is a bit too low and as long as the weather holds, Miami will cover.
College Football Odds: Miami 28, Pittsburgh 10
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