College Football ATS Picks - Michigan at Florida Preview

Two of college football’s heavyweights will face off in the regular season opener, which could immediately help clear up if one or both is a legitimate national championship contender. The Michigan Wolverines will face off against the Florida Gators in a pivotal matchup of ranked teams at a neutral location.

The Wolverines are heading into it as a slight favorite but the oddsmakers feel like the Gators certainly have the capability to spring the upset if things go right. Michigan has a lot of talent to replace, especially on defense, but coach Jim Harbaugh has worked wonders recruiting and has plenty of talent waiting in the wings.

This is expected to be a slugfest, and if either team can get in a rhythm on offense it could mean the difference in the outcome. Michigan and Florida don’t meet too often since they are in different conferences, but they have long been two of the premier programs in college football and that is expected to continue in 2017. All eyes will be in Dallas for this showdown.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 2, 2017 at 3:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium.

NCAA Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Michigan -3.5
Florida +3.5
Over/Under 45

Odds Analysis

The spread is tricky because if Michigan wins by a field goal, Florida still ekes out a cover. However, about 52 percent of the early action is on the Wolverines. The scoring total is quite low, and those putting in wagers think there will be more points than projected as 57.9 percent of the money is currently on the “over.”

Michigan is listed at -170 on the moneyline, while the Gators come in at +148. More of the money is taking Florida there since it is a better payout in a game that features a pair of pretty closely-matched teams.

Player to Watch

Rashan Gary -- Michigan’s young defensive end had a promising freshman season, playing almost exclusively in a backup role. This year, he’ll take center stage to lead a young defense that will look to remain a contender in the talent-heavy Big Ten.

Gary recorded 27 tackles, including five tackles for a loss and one sack last year despite never starting in a single game. He was the No. 1 recruit coming out of high school in 2016 and will look to live up to the hype this season.

The defense lost difference-makers like Jabrill Peppers and Taco Charlton, and Gary will look to fill in as the next in a long line of stars at the school.

Key Stat

Eight. That’s how many Florida players are suspended for this contest. Seven players, including standout wide receiver Antonio Callaway, were suspended for misuse of school funds and an eighth player, wide receiver James Robinson, is being sat after he was cited for marijuana earlier this month.

Callaway and the other six players reportedly purchased items from the university bookstore that they then sold for cash. The junior, who is also the kick returner, is the biggest loss among the group.

Callaway had 721 yards and three touchdowns last season for the Gators. Other players suspended include defensive linemen Jordan Smith and Keivonnis Davis, offensive linemen Richerd Desir-Jones and Kadeem Telfort and linebackers Ventrell Miller and James Houston.

Free ATS Pick

It’s a blow to Florida to lose so many players to suspension in such a key game, although some were scheduled to have bigger roles than others. Callaway was a big-play guy in a game in which the Gators could have really used one.

Michigan may not be perfect in this one as it works in a lot of key newcomers, but Harbaugh has something special going in Ann Arbor. While Florida is a worthy foe, Michigan has the type of dominant defense to take control of this one, in a game where a 10-point lead can feel like 20.

It might not be the prettiest game ever seen, but look for the Wolverines to get the job done as they take aim at a College Football Playoff appearance.

College Football Odds: Michigan 27, Florida 20

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