If the Michigan Wolverines are going to have any say so in the National Championship chase, they don't have any choice but to beat the Penn State Nittany Lions on the road in Happy Valley. PSU's National Championship hopes were ultimately dashed last year when they were beaten by 39 at the Big House, and James Franklin's crew is going to hope to avoid the same fate in 2017.
This matchup in Week 8 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 21, 2017,
at 7:30 p.m. ET at Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan +12.5Penn State -12.5Over/Under Check Back Later
Odds Analysis
If you had watched the game last season between these two teams, you'd never believe that Penn State would be favored by 12.5-points over Michigan just a year later. The Nittany Lions were practically run off the field at Michigan Stadium, and they didn't look anything like a team prepared to take on one of the best teams in America.
Now, PSU sports the No. 2 ranking in the land, and literally everything has changed. Franklin has his team playing with confidence, and outside of a close call against Iowa, none of the games have been all that competitive this season.
That's why the Nittany Lions are favored over Michigan for the first time since '09.
Key Factor
If the Nittany Lions are going to win this game, they're going to have to get a heck of a lot more out of Heisman Trophy favorite Saquon Barkley than they did last year. Barkley was held to just 59 yards on 15 carries last year at Michigan.
For a team that routinely held running backs under three yards per carry, Barkley's 3.93 yards per tote against the Wolverines wasn't bad. But it's games like this that the Heisman Trophy has to be won. No Heisman winner is only going to have 59 rushing yards in the biggest game of his season to date. This has to be a 100-yard rushing game for Barkley for the Nittany Lions to succeed.
Key Stat
16 – The number of penalties Michigan had in last week's win over Indiana.
The Wolverines just can't seem to get out of their own way right now. They only have 13 offensive touchdowns for the season, and there isn't a viable starting quarterback walking through the doors in Ann Arbor anytime soon.
Thus, Jim Harbaugh is stuck playing this game the same way that he has played every other one this year. He has to count on his defense to hold Penn State in the teens or low-20s, and the unit is going to have to create turnovers to set the offense up with short fields.
John O'Korn isn't capable of winning this game by himself, and the last thing he can afford is a team that is going to commit a football field's worth of penalties around him.
Free ATS Pick
This game flat out reeks of old school Big Ten football. Both of these teams are going to line up and try to pop the other one in the mouth. Whichever team can force the other one into actually having to throw the ball in the fourth quarter is the one that is probably going to win the game.
In games like this, Michigan is a live dog. This is the only way that Michigan can win games against big time teams, and Harbaugh is going to preach to his club all week long to make this game as ugly as possible.
Heck, there's a chance that Penn State doesn't even get to the requisite 13 points to cover this spread against one of the best defenses in America. We think the Nittany Lions will get some payback and survive this game, but it isn't going to be pretty.
College Football Odds: Penn State 19, Michigan 12
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
