Are the Purdue Boilermakers back? Purdue is one of the biggest surprises of this young season. This team sits at 2-1 right now and has been competitive in all three of its games so far. That’s a far cry from where it has been in the recent past. The Michigan Wolverines meanwhile have limped across the finish line the past two games since throttling Florida in the opener. Michigan didn’t look good against either Cincinnati or Air Force and now gets an unexpected test in its first Big Ten game of the season.
This contest in Week 4 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 23, 2017, at 4
p.m. ET at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana. This game will be broadcast on FOX.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan -10
Purdue +10
Over/Under 52
Odds Analysis
The Wolverines easily covered against Florida in the opener despite a harrowing start. Two pick-sixes from Wilton Speight gave the Gators hope, but Michigan ground down Florida thanks to a good run game and moved the ball with ease against a very good defense. These last two weeks haven’t been so easy. Michigan hasn’t looked great on offense and failed to cover either game because of the lack of fireworks.
Purdue has been fun to watch in Jeff Brohm’s first season in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers have proven that their performance in the season opener against Louisville was no fluke and smashed Ohio and Missouri in consecutive weeks. All of a sudden, this is one of the most fun offenses in the country and they have three covers to their name already this season.
Coaching Angle
Brohm was just supposed to be the latest story of a coach that came to the Big Ten from a small school with a quirky offense and washed out in three or four years. You see it all the time at the smaller Big Ten programs. Yet this time it just might be working out.
It helps that Brohm inherited personnel that is familiar with some of the principal ideas of his offensive philosophy. Darrel Hazell was the man in charge of Purdue before Brohm got there and brought in almost all of this talent. Although he was unable to find much success with it, that has made the learning curve easier for Brohm here.
This offense is going to score some points. That we know. Brohm was able to get his offenses to light it up for four seasons at Western Kentucky and will do the same thing here.
Matchup to Watch
The Wolverines defense has not allowed less than 13 points this season, but this is one of the best defenses in all of college football. They are in the top five in total defense and have been phenomenal considering only one starter returned to this unit from last year.
Don Brown’s innovative playcalling is a big reason behind the Wolverines success. He is able to bring pressure from a variety of angles and makes it work. It doesn’t matter what offense he is facing, he is typically able to scheme a way to shut it down and make it totally ineffective. It will be very interesting to see the chess match between he and Brohm this week.
Free ATS Pick
This might be the trickiest game to handicap all week. It all depends on whether or not you believe in Purdue. The Boilermakers have looked sharp on offense with David Blough throwing for almost nine yards per pass attempt this season. He won’t put up gaudy numbers like that against Michigan, but might be able to find some success as this unit hasn’t faced a real passer yet.
I’m going to trust in Brohm and call for a narrow Michigan victory that results in a Purdue cover.
College Football Odds: Wolverines 31, Boilermakers 27
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