The Wisconsin Badgers can finally get some respect this week. Wisconsin played its first ranked opponent last week when it took on the Iowa Hawkeyes, dismantling Kirk Ferentz’s squad 38-14. The win moved Wisconsin up three spots to No. 5 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings and gives the Badgers a chance to crack the top four with a win this week. The Michigan Wolverines will be the best team they have faced this season.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 18, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. This game will be broadcast on FOX.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan +7.5
Wisconsin -7.5
Over/Under 40
Odds Analysis
Money has been coming in on Michigan all week long. Bettors aren’t buying that Wisconsin is deserving of a top spot and have moved the line from Wisconsin -10 to Wisconsin -7.5. This line might dip under seven by the time toe meets leather.
Wisconsin has been favored by double digits in every game it has been in this season. The Badgers have acquitted themselves well for the most part and are 6-4 ATS, but stumbled a bit against Northwestern and Purdue. This offense has been surprisingly decent this season and that has meant the over is 7-3 in Wisconsin games.
The Wolverines have only recently started to turn the corner. Michigan struggled through the early part of the season with the wheels coming off in a 29-point loss against Penn State. They failed to cover six of their first eight games, but have covered the last two thanks to suffocating defensive performances.
Player to Watch
Brandon Peters has been unexpectedly thrust into the spotlight this season. Peters was the third-string quarterback behind Wilton Speight and John O’Korn heading into this campaign. He wasn’t expected to see any time as a freshman behind two experienced quarterbacks, but has become the main man with Speight injured and O’Korn turning the ball over far too much for Jim Harbaugh’s liking.
He hasn’t been asked to do much in his three appearances, throwing the ball sparingly. However, he is not turning the ball over, and that’s the important thing for Harbaugh. In these three games he is 27-45 for 325 yards and four touchdowns without an interception.
The three defenses he has faced are not nearly as talented as Wisconsin’s. Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland have average defenses and the Wolverines were able to run the ball on them and not force anything out of Peters. Against Wisconsin though, he will have to be able to move the ball through the air at least somewhat.
Matchup to Watch
The Badgers are going to want to run the ball as much as they possibly can. Jonathan Taylor has been one of the top running backs in college football this season. He has already surpassed 1,500 rushing yards and is averaging seven yards per carry this season. Taylor has been the feature back for a team that is averaging 5.2 yards per carry as a whole and running the ball on nearly 70 percent of its possessions.
This will be the hardest front seven they have faced by far. Don Brown is probably the best defensive coordinator in college football and has had the Wolverines prepared all year long. Michigan is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry and only Saquon Barkley has had a lot of success against this defense.
Free ATS Pick
There seems to be a heavy herd mentality with this game. Everyone seems to love Michigan just because they believe Wisconsin is a sham, but forget that the Wolverines have not been impressive at all this season. Michigan doesn’t have a win over a ranked team and lost to both ranked teams it faced. The Wolverines are now on their third quarterback and won’t be able to move the ball against a good Badgers defense. Wait until the line drops to seven and then hammer the Badgers.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 31, Michigan 13
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