The Ohio State Buckeyes would need a miracle to happen in order to make the College Football Playoff now. Ohio State looked to have the best shot of any Big Ten team, but got hammered by Iowa last week and now is on the outside looking in with two losses. Even though they are out of national title contention, this team can still win the Big Ten and is favored to do just that. However, they must beat the Michigan State Spartans at home on Saturday.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 11, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. This game will be broadcast on FOX.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan State +15.5
Ohio State -15.5
Over/Under 55
Odds Analysis
The Ohio State Buckeyes opened as a 17-point favorite in this one. Bettors considered that number a bit too high and money came in on the Spartans thanks to their ability to keep games close despite a perceived lack of talent.
Ohio State started Big Ten play looking like an unstoppable powerhouse, covering its first four conference games. However, the Buckeyes were unable to cover the spread two weeks ago in a narrow win over Penn State and got reverse covered as a 21-point favorite over Iowa this past weekend. For the most part, the offense has been great though and each of their last six have gone over the total.
The Spartans have now knocked off two of the Big Ten’s powerhouses following their win Penn State last week. They were a 13-point underdog to Michigan and a 9.5-point underdog to Penn State, but won both of those games thanks to a strong defensive effort.
Player to Watch
Last week, I highlighted J.T. Barrett in this spot and made the case that he should be a Heisman Trophy contender. Barrett had been fantastic all season long, save for the Oklahoma game, and had thrown 25 touchdowns with just one interception.
However, you can essentially consider him out of the running following his performance against Iowa. Barrett was awful all game long against the Hawkeyes defense, and while he made some good plays with his legs, he was a liability through the air. He completed just 52.9 percent of his passes and threw four interceptions in the 55-24 loss to the Hawkeyes.
Now, Barrett has to play against a Michigan State team that has been his kryptonite the past two years. In those two meetings, Barrett is just 19 of 38 for 134 yards through the air.
Matchup to Watch
Michigan State may have a tough time moving the ball against the Ohio State defense. While the Buckeyes had a monumental collapse on the defensive side last week, this is one of the better units in the country. They are still ranked in the top 20 in terms of total defense and will be out to make amends in front of their home crowd.
The Spartans are a middle of the pack offense that has not been able to run the ball much this season. Their top four runners are all averaging 4.5 yards or less per carry and they don’t have the explosive playmaker that they had in previous years. That has put the pressure on Brian Lewerke and he has really come through these past two weeks. He surpassed 400 yards against both Northwestern and Penn State and kept this team hanging around.
Free ATS Pick
If Barrett doesn’t have a good performance passing, the Buckeyes might lose outright to the Spartans. Michigan State has the third-best run defense in the country in terms of total yards and has held strong against Ohio State on the ground in each of the last two seasons. I think they are going to do the same once again and might pull off the upset.
College Football Odds: Ohio State 24, Michigan State 20
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