Since Ken Niumatalolo became the head coach of the Navy Midshipmen a decade ago, the program has had an amazing amount of continued success. Navy has won at least eight games in eight of those 10 seasons and finished tied for first place in the AAC West in 2015 and 2016. Unfortunately, this season Navy had some troubles, but did manage to get to a bowl. Now they need to beat the Virginia Cavaliers to avoid what would be the program’s second losing season during Niumatalolo’s tenure.
Watch the Military Bowl live on Thursday, December 28, 2017, at 1:30 p.m. ET at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Virginia +1.5
Navy -1.5
Over/Under 55
Odds Analysis
Navy enters this game with a 6-6 record and had a very disappointing end to its regular season. The Midshipmen started the season hot, winning five straight and were ranked in the Top 25 going into October. Things collapsed after that though and Navy dropped six of its last seven to finish the year at .500. Navy’s offense was just unable to get much going and that led to the under cashing in five of its last seven.
The Cavaliers had a very similar trajectory this season. Virginia won five of its first six, including a win on the road against Boise State as a 13.5-point underdog. The Wahoos only managed to beat Georgia Tech over their last six games though and all of their losses were by double digits.
Matchup to Watch
When you’re playing Navy, you know what’s coming. The question is whether or not you can stop it. The Midshipmen run the triple option and have the second-best rushing offense in terms of yards per game this season. However, good defensive lines have been able to stop them this season by blowing up the option before it has a chance to get going.
Virginia’s defensive line has been decent this season. The Cavaliers are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and while that’s not great, it’s not terrible either.
The conventional wisdom is that one of the reasons the option is successful is because it’s a much different scheme than what everyone else runs, and teams have trouble stopping it when they have less than a week to prepare. Virginia has not only had a month to prepare for it, but it’s coach Bronco Mendenhall has gone up against this system in the past too.
Player to Watch
When Virginia has the ball, it will be up to Kurt Benkert to move the ball through the air on Navy. The Cavaliers have one of the worst ground games in college football and have relied on Benkert to move the chains all year.
Benkert threw for over 3,000 yards this season and has gotten it to the end zone 25 times on the year. However, he has not been very efficient, and is averaging just 6.5 yards per pass. Benkert was lights out against Miami, but struggled against every other defense down the stretch and is not a running threat either.
The good news for Benkert is that Navy has had a hard time stopping the pass all year long. The Midshipmen are allowing quarterbacks to average nine yards per pass this season, one of the worst figures in college football.
Free ATS Pick
The line movement has slowly moved away from the Midshipmen. Navy opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but it has already been bet down by two points and Virginia might even by a favorite by kickoff.
Virginia is a great bet in this one. A hard-nosed coach like Mendenhall will have his team prepared to stop the option and Navy won’t be able to do much to stop Benkert.
College Football Odds: Virginia 34, Navy 20
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