The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Auburn Tigers might be the second- and third-best teams in the SEC West. There’s no doubt that Alabama is still the best team in the land, but Mississippi State’s win over LSU and Auburn’s close loss to Clemson mean that these are the two teams with the best chance to upset the apple cart in the SEC. It’s unlikely either will, but the winner of this game can probably assure itself of a much more enticing bowl game at the end of the year.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 6 p.m. ET at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi State +10
Auburn -10
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
Auburn continues to be superb on the defensive end and that unit continues to save Gus Malzahn’s bacon. The Tigers are seventh in the nation at scoring defense and fourth in total defense and that has led to three of their four games finishing under the total so far this year. Last week’s win over Missouri was the first time Auburn covered all year, but the Tigers pushed against Georgia Southern and failed to cover against Clemson by two.
Dan Mullen continues to do wonders at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs throttled their first three opponents of the season before last week’s shambolic performance against Georgia. Mississippi State’s lowest margin of victory in that stretch was 30 points and they easily covered all three games. The under is 3-1 in Mississippi State games this year.
Matchup to Watch
The Bulldogs have been one of the best in the country at running the football. Under quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, this team is averaging 267.5 yards per game on the ground. He is the team’s leading rusher in terms of average and touchdowns, with seven yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns to his credit this season. The top five rushers on this team are averaging at least 5.6 yards per carry and when that’s the case, you know the offensive line is doing its job.
Mississippi State will be facing an Auburn defense that is allowing just 3.63 yards per play this year, one of the best totals in the land. The Tigers are great along the defensive line and have done a good job of stopping the run this year. Marlon Davidson is one of the leaders up front and Mississippi State will need to know where he is.
Player to Watch
Jarrett Stidham has not lived up to the hype this season. It was unfair to think he would be the panacea that cured the woes on the offensive side of the ball for Auburn, but he has not been able to put up the points that Malzahn thought he would.
The offensive line has been a major reason why he hasn’t played as expected. Against Clemson, Stidham was sacked 11 times, a totally unacceptable amount for any quarterback, particularly one with his mobility. Those issues have yet to resurface after games against Mercer and Missouri, but are bubbling underneath.
Free ATS Pick
It’s a bit surprising to see Auburn as this much of a favorite. Even though the Tigers will likely be able to lock down the Bulldogs running game, they might not have much success on offense themselves. Mississippi State was able to stop LSU’s running game two weeks ago and they should be able to do the same.
Grab the 10 with Mississippi State while you can get it and also play the under. Neither team will be able to do much on the offensive end and this should be a low scoring affair. If you can parlay the two together, all the better.
College Football Odds: Auburn 24, Mississippi State 20
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