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What a turnaround we have seen from the Missouri Tigers. Mizzou started the season 1-5 and it looked like any hopes of a bowl game were shot after getting blown out by South Carolina, Purdue, Auburn, and Georgia. However, the Tigers didn’t panic and didn’t make a rash decision to fire Barry Odom after the start and instead stayed the course. Now, Odom is safe after the Tigers have won five straight games in dominating fashion, beating every opponent by at least four touchdowns. Missouri is now bowl eligible and looking to secure a winning record by claiming the Battle Line Trophy over the Arkansas Razorbacks this week.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Friday, November 24, 2017, at 2:30 p.m. ET at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas. This game will be broadcast on CBS.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Missouri -10.5
Arkansas +10.5
Over/Under 70
Odds Analysis
You have to give offensive coordinator Josh Heupel a lot of credit for how good this offense has looked. Missouri has scored at least 45 points in each of its last five wins and did so against defenses like Florida and Vanderbilt. The Tigers have now covered seven straight games after starting the year 0-4 ATS and are one of the highest scoring teams in the SEC too.
Arkansas has been one of the worst teams to bet on this season. The Razorbacks are just 3-8 ATS and only have one win in SEC play. They did get the cover last week against Mississippi State, and almost the outright win, but this team has lost by 20 or more points to four different conference foes this season.
Coaching Angle
Bret Bielema will probably be coaching his last game at Arkansas this week. The Razorbacks head coach is an endangered species following the firing of Athletic Director Jeff Long. It was thought that Arkansas had struck gold when it lured Bielema away from Wisconsin with a big contract, but that has not panned out.
In five seasons on the job, Bielema has been abysmal in SEC play. He is just 11-29 against conference foes and although many of those were close losses, they are still L’s at the end of the day.
This season has been his worst since first arriving on campus. For the first time ever, Arkansas will not have a 1,000-yard rusher and that’s pretty disappointing considering both Bielema and Arkansas’ track record.
Player to Watch
If you stopped paying attention to Missouri after the first month of the season, you’d be surprised to know that quarterback Drew Lock has some of the best numbers in the country.
Lock has hit a ton of big plays in Heupel’s offense and that has masked his accuracy issues. He has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in four games this season, including his last two, but is averaging 9.5 yards per pass because of how many deep balls he hits. Lock has thrown for at least two touchdowns in eight straight games and has 38 touchdown passes on the year.
Arkansas has one of the weaker defenses in the conference and Lock should be able to have a lot of success against this unit. The Razorbacks are allowing 6.4 yards per play and 8.1 yards per pass attempt this season. Expect two or three long pass plays against this defense.
Free ATS Pick
It didn’t take long for oddsmakers to hop on the Missouri bandwagon, but they haven’t been able to make the lines high enough with how this offense has played. Seeing Arkansas as a double-digit home dog in this situation, might be a bit enticing, but the players may have quit on Bielema. If the Tigers hit some big plays early, the home crowd might turn against Bielema and the rout will be on. Don’t be surprised to see that situation play out.
College Football Odds: Missouri 42, Arkansas 24
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