College Football ATS Picks - Montana State at Washington State Game Preview

The Washington State Cougars have not fared well against FCS opponents in recent seasons. Washington State started the 2015 season with a loss to Portland State and dropped last year’s opener to Eastern Washington. The Montana State Bobcats are aiming to make it three seasons in a row, but don’t have the talent that either of their counterparts from the Big Sky Conference had. It seems like the Cougars are safe from an upset this season, but anything is possible with a Mike Leach team.

This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 2, 2017, at 10:30

p.m. ET at Martin Stadium in Pullman, Washington. The game will be broadcast on FS1.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Montana State +33
Washington State -33
Over/Under 57

Odds Analysis

Washington State hasn’t won a season opener since it beat Idaho State to kick off the 2011 season. The Cougars were a four-touchdown favorite against both Portland State and Eastern Washington over the last two seasons, but this is the most they have been favored by in quite some time. Wazzou had a hard time covering down the stretch in 2016, with a 2-6 ATS mark over its last eight games.

Montana State took Washington State to the brink the last time these teams met. That was back during the dreadful Paul Wulff era in 2010 and this Cougars team is a much different animal. In that game, the Bobcats took a 22-7 lead into the fourth quarter, but faltered down the stretch and lost 23-22 in the closing minutes.

Player to Watch

A Bobcats cover is going to depend on a solid game out of quarterback Chris Murray. Murray was the Big Sky Freshman of the Year in 2016 and kept arch-rival Montana out of the postseason with a fantastic performance in the season finale.

He was a dynamic rusher last season, but had some struggles with accuracy. Despite playing in a conference that had some mediocre pass defenses, Murray was able to complete just 44.8 percent of his passes.

This offseason, head coach Jeff Choate has asked him to be more of a pocket passer. The Bobcats primarily used a spread option under Murray last season, but the plan is to have him under center more this season. That system seems to run counter to Murray’s skill set.

Key Stat

Washington State put an emphasis on running the ball for the first time during Mike Leach’s tenure in Pullman last season. The Cougars averaged 120 yards per game on the ground and although those numbers are pretty pedestrian for most schools, that’s a massive improvement for Wazzou.

The Cougars bring back their three leading rushers from last season and have some very talented offensive linemen that can pave the way for them. Left guard Cody O’Connell was a First-Team All-American last season and defensive linemen have a hard time holding the line against him. He is a giant at 6’8, 370 pounds and the Cougars love to run behind his big body.

This was the most well-balanced the offense has been over the past five seasons and the ability to run the ball opened things up for quarterback Luke Falk. Falk ended up completing 70 percent of his passes and is a darkhorse Heisman Trophy contender in 2017.

Free ATS Pick

The Cougars have nine starters back from the best defense the school has fielded so far this decade. Their front seven was particularly impressive and it’s going to be hard for Montana State to run the ball against them.

Murray’s inaccuracy will really hurt the Bobcats here. The best way to beat the Cougars is through the air and Montana State just doesn’t have what it takes there. Washington State will get the FCS monkey off its back in a rout.

College Football Odds: Cougars 48, Bobcats 10

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