The Boise State Broncos are ready for their rematch. They lost to Fresno State in the season finale but the two teams will face off again in Week 15 in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game.
Even though the teams finished with identical conference records and it was the Bulldogs who won the head-to-head matchup, Boise State enters this game as the favorite. The Broncos got a huge boost in getting the game at home, which was decided based on a computer formula.
If the game was at Fresno this spread would have been much closer, especially considering the Bulldogs just beat the Broncos at home. But it will be an uphill climb now for a program which has bounced back and would love to find the type of stability that Boise State has showcased for a number of years.
This contest in Week 14 of the regular season will go down Saturday, December 2, 2017, at 7:45 p.m. ET at Albertsons Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Fresno State +9.5
Boise State -9.5
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
Boise State is a solid favorite in this matchup at home. The Bulldogs may be the underdogs but the bettors like them to cover this spread as more than 61 percent is on Fresno State getting this many points.
The scoring total is lower than most college football games as Boise State’s defense will aim to establish itself in this one. The “over” is the much more popular pick as more than 87 percent of the action believes there will be more points than projected in this conference title game.
Key Stat
21. That’s how many losses in a row Fresno State had suffered against ranked teams before knocking off Boise State last time out. The Bulldogs only led by two points early in the fourth quarter but closed strong.
KeeSean Johnson caught an 81-yard pass for a touchdown from Marcus Maryion for a 26-17 lead and then Fresno State registered a late safety to help remove any doubt about the win. Boise State’s solid offense was shut down in this matchup, and Fresno State is looking to bring more of the same effort and intensity.
The Broncos have improved by eight games from last season, one of the most impressive turnarounds in all of college football. The oddsmakers clearly aren’t completely sold based on the spread but Fresno State has been exceeding expectations all year long and will aim to do so on a big stage in the conference championship game.
Player To Watch
Brett Rypien -- The Boise State quarterback had thrown 12 touchdowns in his previous four games before the matchup with Fresno State, but didn’t toss a scoring throw in that matchup. Fresno State did a nice job limiting him, as Rypien finished the game 22-of-31 for 278 yards.
He has been the Broncos’ quarterback for three seasons and all of that experience should come up big in this matchup. Rypien has thrown for 2,269 yards this season with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. He is expected to have a much better performance in this game, and needs to if the Broncos are going to not just win this game but cover the spread.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to figure out what the oddsmakers are seeing in this one. These teams are pretty even statistically and the Bulldogs are coming off a head-to-head win. Boise State does have the luxury of the home field advantage, but that is usually only worth a three-point swing.
The Broncos are the marginally better team and is more used to big games, but the spread is way too high. Take Fresno State to cover this spread, although Boise State is going to sneak away with a last-second win.
College Football Odds: Boise State 27, Fresno State 24
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