College Football ATS Picks - Nebraska at Illinois Game Preview

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are reeling. Nebraska fired its AD in the middle of the week prior to its game against Rutgers and Mike Riley’s job security Is suddenly in question. The timing of the firing was very odd and does nothing to alleviate the problems of a program that has been unable to find traction in three years under Riley. Nebraska does get a much easier opponent in the Illinois Fighting Illini this time around, but a loss would probably spell curtains for Riley, no matter what fashion it came in.

This matchup in Week 5 of the regular season will take place on Friday, September 29, 2017,

at 8 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. This game will be broadcast on FOX Sports 1.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Nebraska -7
Illinois +7
Over/Under: Check Back Later

Odds Analysis

Riley’s Cornhuskers have been awful as a favorite this year. Three times, Nebraska was a double digit favorite against an inferior team, but the Cornhuskers failed to cover any of the three games and even lost one outright. Things were better for this team from a gambling perspective when they were underdogs, like they were against Oregon in the second week of the year.

Speaking of coaches that might be gone soon, Lovie Smith and the Illini were killed two weeks ago by South Florida. Illinois never had a chance in the humiliating loss and failed to cover a large spread despite this game being marred by penalties and other forms of insanity. Despite that, this team is 2-1 overall and picked up an outright win as an underdog heading into Big Ten play.

Key Stat

Illinois has had one of the worst offenses in the country so far this season. Although the Illini have tallied at least 20 points in every game, they are in the bottom ten in the nation in total yards and aren’t even averaging 300 yards per game.

This team is bad in both phases of the game too. The Illini aren’t in the top 100 in any major offensive category and have only been able to thatch wins together because of a bend but don’t break defense that is buoyed by competent special teams. If not for that, this team could be 0-3 and the worst Power Five team in the nation.

Coaching Angle

The seats for both of these coaches are warming up. Barring disaster Smith should at least have one more season to get things right, but this might be it for Riley.

Riley was seen as a fantastic hire when the school decided to sign him away from Oregon State, but he has been unable to capture the same magic in Lincoln. He had an awful first season, but did end up fine last year. This year, a loss to Northern Illinois has put him in a really bad spot and a couple more losses might do the trick.

What makes it all the worse is that Riley came here to replace the acerbic Bo Pelini, who never finished worse than 9-4. He was let go after he upset too many boosters and other power brokers in the athletic department, but the results on the field were never a question.

Free ATS Pick

Seeing Nebraska favored by less than double digits shows how far this program has fallen. The Cornhuskers should be competing for a division title in a weak Big Ten West, but instead are once again struggling their way to a bowl game.

Neither offense is that good, but the defenses aren’t stalwart. Willie Taggart’s former and new team lit both defenses up in the past few weeks and that’s something to have in the back of your mind. The under could be a good bet depending on the total, so keep an eye on that when it opens.

College Football Odds: Cornhuskers 24, Fighting Illini 20

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