College Football ATS Picks - Nevada at Northwestern Preview

The Northwestern Wildcats had high expectations last season but got off to a brutal start. While 2016 eventually turned around and they won a bowl game, seven wins was not what the program had initially expected. Northwestern was upset in its regular season opener and will aim to avoid that fate in 2017 when it takes on the Nevada Wolf Pack.

Northwestern plays this game at home and is a heavy favorite. The Wildcats have the superior talent and should take care of business, but they won’t be taking this game for granted. Nevada has a lot of uncertainty on offense so it could struggle to score the ball in this matchup.

If the Wolf Pack can keep this one closer than expected, that will be a good sign, but it seems unlikely Northwestern falls as the favorite for a second consecutive season opener.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 2, 2017 at 2:30 p.m. ET at Ryan Field.

NCAA Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Nevada +24
Northwestern -24
Over/Under 60.5

Odds Analysis

Northwestern will really need to play well to cover since it is such a large favorite, especially considering the offense wasn’t especially explosive last season. Most of the bettors don’t see it as likely since nearly 66 percent of the early money is on Nevada to cover.

The scoring total has been deemed low by the bettors with 88 percent of the action thus far jumping on the “over.” Even so, this one might not have as many fireworks as people believe. Consider the “under”in this matchup.

Avoiding A Slow Start

Northwestern won 10 games in 2015 but never had much of a chance to repeat that success because of last season’s early-season woes. The Wildcats dropped their opener, 22-21 to small-college Western Michigan as the offense struggled. They didn’t get any better the next week, losing to Illinois State, 9-7, in a putrid showing.

Northwestern split its next two games, including a loss to Nebraska, to drop to 1-3 before finally getting going. It’s a credit to the Wildcats that they didn’t fold, and the team was able to come away with a winning record after knocking off No. 22 Pittsburgh in the Pinstripe Bowl.

The Wildcats feel like the team is good enough to return bowling as the offense should be improved. However, another slow start will take the air out of their sails immediately.

Player To Watch

Nevada’s quarterback -- There is no specific name here yet because there are still two candidates to get the majority of the playing time. The first is Ty Gangi, who threw for 1,301 yards with eight touchdowns and six interceptions a season ago. He is a dual threat quarterback who will try to beat out David Cornwell.

Cornwell is a junior college transfer who has a lot of hype but must prove he deserves to be the captain of the offense. It wouldn’t be a surprise if both signal-callers got time under center against Northwestern.

Free ATS Pick

Northwestern had a down season in 2016 but has a lot of key players returning. The Wildcats won’t fall in the trap of a bad start once again. Nevada should be able to hang around for a while, but Northwestern will eventually prove its superiority.

The choice here is for the Wildcats to win this game as quarterback Clayton Thorson and running back Justin Jackson should be able to get chunk yardage against a Nevada defense that might be suspect early on.

This is a pretty big spread, though, so the defense must play well. Northwestern should flex its muscle in this one but it won’t be enough to cash in on the spread. Nevada is the right call even though it won’t come close to winning this game.

College Football Odds: Northwestern 37, Nevada 20

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