College Football ATS Picks - New Mexico at Boise State Game Preview

Neither the New Mexico Lobos nor the Boise State Broncos entered Mountain West play the way they wanted to. For as much as Bob Davie has done to change the culture of the program in Albuquerque, he can’t consistently beat New Mexico’s younger brother in-state. The Aggies again got the better of the Lobos in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Meanwhile, Boise State suffered a heartbreaker against Washington State. The Broncos were done in by a combination of turnovers, bad luck, and poor defense down the stretch and will look to fix that before MWC action starts in earnest.

This matchup in Week 3 of the regular season will take place on Thursday, September 14, 2017,

at 8 p.m. ET at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

New Mexico +16.5
Boise State -16.5

Odds Analysis

Boise State can at least say it is 2-0 ATS. The Broncos have shown that they have a rock solid defense and might be one of the nation’s best at stopping the pass by the end of the year. Troy couldn’t move the ball against this defense in the opener and Washington State only had 10 points through 52 minutes of action. It’s a crime that the Cougars and Broncos didn’t play an under game last week because under bettors in that game deserved to cash their ticket.

The Lobos have failed to cover as a home favorite twice already this season, so they are hoping that a change of venue will help. They dominated Abilene Christian in the opener but couldn’t cover and looked awful in their game against New Mexico State last week.

Matchup to Watch

Can New Mexico have any sort of success running the ball against this defense? Boise State totally stopped both Troy and Washington State on the ground, holding both schools to under two yards per carry combined.

The Lobos had some success running the ball against the Broncos last season, but that was largely because Boise State had already raced out to a 49-7 lead and then turned off the gas. New Mexico ended up with great numbers on the ground, but almost all of it was garbage time and it couldn’t really run the ball against this defense.

They weren’t able to get a push against New Mexico State’s porous front seven all night last week and that’s very concerning heading into this one. Although New Mexico can throw the ball a little bit this season, the Lobos will find it hard to move the ball against the Broncos.

Key Injury

It’s unclear whether or not the Broncos will have Brett Rypien healthy for this one. Rypien left the game against Washington State in the first quarter with an injury and didn’t return. There is no indication if he will miss any time or even what part of his body is ailing him, but expect to see Montell Cozart this week.

Cozart is a transfer from Kansas who made the most of his opportunity in relief of Rypien last week. He threw for 161 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another 72 yards and a score against the Cougars and must love the thought of playing this defense.

Free ATS Pick

These were two of the best teams in the MWC last season and are the two division favorites. Every time we see New Mexico challenge the conference elites though, the school seems to come painfully short.

That is the case again this season. New Mexico just doesn’t have the horses to run with Boise State and the Broncos defense will be able to corral this one-dimensional offense. Look for the Broncos to roll in a blowout of the Lobos here.

College Football Odds: Broncos 42, Lobos 17

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