Things haven’t gone quite as planned for Larry Fedora and the North Carolina Tar Heels in dropping three of their first four games which includes losing each of their first two ACC contests. They’ll look to bounce back on the road against the Coastal Division rival Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets whom they’ve taken care of business against in each of the rival’s last three meetings. Easier said than done however with the Ramblin’ Wreck a desperate Tennessee comeback away from being undefeated.
This contest in Week 5 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Bobby Dodd Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina +10
Georgia Tech -10
O/U 64
Odds Analysis
Though it took a second half surge to get the job done, Georgia Tech went on to win and cover the 7.5-point spread against PITT last week. On the flipside, UNC lost and failed to cover for the third time against Duke. Even with that the case, the betting line for this matchup has fallen a half point down to -9.5 from the 10-point opener. Someone out there believes the Tar Heels cover, and threw a good chunk of change on it occurring. The reverse line movement occurred with over 67 percent of the tickets written backing the home team. I think the line is going the wrong way, and we’ll all soon discover that once this game is said and done.
The total has seen some reverse line movement go down as well. After initially opening at 64, the number to beat has since been moved down to 60.5 with 61.5 percent of the betting handle expecting these division rivals to play to a high scorer. Much of that might have to do with the fact that each of the last three skirmishes combined to go over the closing number. With no rain or wind expected to hamper the play on the field, this number could trickle even higher come kick-off.
Injury Report
Austin Proehl – The Heels best pass catcher succumbed to an arm injury last Saturday against Duke, and his availability for this one is still up in the air. He’s been UNC’s most reliable target in collecting 16 receptions and turning them into 270 yards and a touchdown. His 16.9 yard per reception average would be sorely missed against a Yellow Jackets defense that excels defending the pass in allowing just 164 yards per game ( No. 22 ).
Andre Smith – Though Smith was lost in North Carolina’s second game of the season against Louisville, his absence will be felt the most in this spot against Georgia Tech’s triple option attack. Since he’s been gone, UNC has surrendered 102 yards on 33 carries to Old Dominion and 186 yards on 45 carries to the Blue Devils. GTECH enters this tilt the owners of the nation’s No. 1 ranked rushing attack that’s gouged opposing defenses for just under 395 yards per game. The Heels will sorely miss the leader of their linebacker core.
Key Stat
4.0 – The Yellow Jackets need to take a class or two on ball security. For some unknown reason, the ball carriers simply don’t know how to hold onto the pigskin. They’ve averaged 4.0 fumbles through their first three games, and that’s something that must be rectified immediately! Of that average, 3.0 fumbles per game have gone to the other team. You can run the ball all you want, but if you’re not holding it when you cross the goal line, you aren’t being awarded the six points. A crucial fumble cost the team against the Vols, and they also coughed four of them up to the Panthers last week. Do that again this week, and they’ll be in danger of dropping a fourth straight in this rivalry.
Free ATS Pick
I’m forecasting UNC’s season to only get worse on Saturday. The only way the Tar Heels come out of this one with a victory is by dramatically winning the turnover battle. With Paul Johnson drilling it into his kids heads about ball security throughout practice all week, I can’t help but think we’ll see a much better job put forth by the Yellow Jackets. They’ll also be taking to their home field stark raving mad knowing full well they haven’t beaten North Carolina in three years. Look for that streak to come to an end as Georgia Tech logs the emphatic victory.
College Football Odds: Yellow Jackets 42, Tar Heels 24
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