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It’s been a disastrous season for the North Carolina Tar Heels. North Carolina is sitting at 1-8 and has yet to win a conference game. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik’s surprise departure in spring turned out to have a big effect on this unit and not having a steady hand like Mitch Trubisky has limited the options the offense has. UNC has yet to score 20 points or more in conference play this season, but will need to top that mark on Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Panthers.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Thursday, November 9, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina +10
Pittsburgh -10
Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers must have done a good job with the line because there has been no movement since it opened.
The Tar Heels have been one of the biggest disappointments in college football this season. UNC’s one win has come against Old Dominion and the team is 2-7 ATS. The good news is this team doesn’t it look like it has quit yet. UNC hung tough with Virginia a few weeks ago and nearly knocked off undefeated Miami last Saturday. The defense forced a ton of mistakes from Malik Rosier and that’s encouraging.
Pittsburgh has not had the season it was hoping for either. The Panthers started the season 2-5, but they have already started to turn the corner. They have knocked off Duke and Virginia in subsequent weeks thanks to some solid work on the defensive end. Under is 7-1-1 in Pittsburgh games this season.
Last Meeting
It was a battle of strengths when these teams met last season. Pittsburgh was content to pound the ball on the ground and dominate time of possession. The Panthers had a ton of success running on this defense, picking up 281 yards on 55 carries and that led to them controlling the ball for over 41 minutes of action.
Larry Fedora put his faith in Trubisky and he delivered. Pitt’s defense stuffed the North Carolina ground game, allowing under a yard per carry on the afternoon. However, Trubisky hit big play after big play through the air and led his team to the win. He ended the game completing 35 of 46 passes for 453 yards and five touchdowns.
While Pitt’s run game isn’t as good as it was last year, North Carolina’s offense is a ghost of what it was last season.
Matchup to Watch
The key in this game is whether or not North Carolina can stop Pittsburgh’s ground game. The Panthers have become reliant on its running game after Max Browne’s season-ending injury. While back-up quarterback Ben Dinucci has led the team to two wins, he has not had to throw the ball much in those games.
North Carolina was able to hold Miami’s ground game in check last Saturday. The Hurricanes averaged just a shade over two yards per carry and nearly lost because of their inability to control the ball. If not for some mistakes from quarterback Nathan Elliott and a couple big plays from Miami, UNC might have secured a huge upset.
Free ATS Pick
Injuries have devastated North Carolina this season. At last count, 16 different Tar Heels have suffered season-ending injuries and seven more are questionable for this Thursday night tilt. The loss of so many starters has understandably killed this team and inexperienced quarterback play has helped finish it off.
After such a tough loss, North Carolina is going to be a little demoralized. This team doesn’t have the ability to score points on a vulnerable Pittsburgh defense, and the Panthers ground game will succeed where Miami did not.
College Football Odds: Pittsburgh 31, North Carolina 14
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