College Football ATS Picks - Northern Arizona at Arizona Game Preview

The Arizona Wildcats are looking to bounce back after a disaster of a season in 2016. Arizona had gone to a bowl in each of Rich Rodriguez’s four previous seasons at the school, but lost eight straight conference games before a season-ending win over rival Arizona State last year. They will look to turn things around in 2017, but face a tricky test in their opener. The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks have one of the best quarterbacks at the FCS level and he can have some success against this defense.

This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 2, 2017, at 11

p.m. ET at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona. The game will be broadcast on the Pac-12 Network.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Northern Arizona +18
Arizona -18
Over/Under 68.5

Odds Analysis

Few teams were worse than Arizona was against the number last season. The Wildcats went just 2-10 ATS and were absolutely drilled down the stretch. Arizona was outscored 242-72 in its five games before it broke an eight-game losing streak with a win over Arizona State in the season finale.

Northern Arizona has not fared well against Arizona over the last few seasons. The Lumberjacks were hammered by the Wildcats 77-13 in 2015 and were shutout in a 35-0 loss back in 2013. They failed to cover either game against Arizona.

Matchup to Watch

Case Cookus is ready to get back on the field. Cookus missed most of last season with a shoulder injury that derailed the Lumberjacks hopes of winning the Big Sky.

He was phenomenal as a freshman in 2015, being named the National Freshman of the Year after a season where he threw for over 3,000 yards and had a 37-to-5 touchdown to interception ratio.

Cookus has a great receiver to work with in Emmanuel Butler. Butler had his second straight season with over 1,000 yards despite not having the talented Cookus to throw him the ball. He is a strong receiver at 6’4 and 220 pounds and will have a distinct size advantage over Arizona’s cornerbacks.

The Wildcats do return their entire secondary from last season, but the team obviously failed to grasp new defensive coordinator Marcel Yates’ defense in 2016. Arizona’s defense was abysmal, allowing 469 yards per game and 38.3 points per game last season. If they can’t stop Cookus, this defense is going to really struggle against Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold.

Players to Watch

Uncharacteristically, Rich Rod’s team failed to find a quarterback that could produce last season. Brandon Dawkins was the primary starter and failed to be efficient. He completed just 53.8 percent of his passes and didn’t have a 300-yard game all season long.

Dawkins was the starter for most of the season because he was a fantastic runner. He ran for 944 yards and 10 touchdowns and was able to at least move the chains that way.

Khalil Tate also saw action at the tender age of 17 last season. Tate took over the job for a couple games in the middle of the season after Dawkins suffered a concussion. He wasn’t very accurate, completing just 40 percent of his passes, but has a lot of raw talent and was one of Arizona’s highest rated quarterback recruits ever.

Rodriguez announced these two as co-starters for the opener after an extended quarterback battle. He has been mum about how they will split time, but Dawkins will likely start at least the first series.

Free ATS Pick

It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Northern Arizona pull off the upset. The Lumberjacks have the type of personnel to win a shootout and Cookus is a more reliable quarterback than either one of Arizona’s signal callers. At the very least, the Lumberjacks will be able to get the cover by a comfortable margin.

College Football Odds: Wildcats 41, Lumberjacks 35

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