The Wisconsin Badgers are again looking like the team to beat in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin has looked better than any other team in the division, except maybe Iowa, and has played better than conference contenders Northwestern and Nebraska. Strong defense and a good running game has been the hallmark of the Badgers for two decades and has kept them alive when others have faltered. They will rely on those two planks when the Northwestern Wildcats come to Madison.
This contest in Week 5 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 12
p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Northwestern +14.5
Wisconsin -14.5
Over/Under 52
Odds Analysis
Wisconsin picked apart all three of its non-conference opponents, covering both teams from the Beehive State with ease in the process. The defense has been pivotal to the team’s success, allowing just 10 PPG through the first three games, but a surprising offensive effort has led to two of the Badgers three games going over the total.
The Wildcats of Northwestern knocked off two of the worst FBS teams in the country in non-conference play, but got wrecked when they took on a good team in Duke. The Wildcats were two-point road favorites in that one, but the Blue Devils took them to task in Durham, routing them by 24 points.
Key Stat
Northwestern is typically one of the better defensive teams in the country, but the school has really struggled this year in spite of playing two mediocre offenses and a decent one. The Wildcats are 90th in the nation in total defense, giving up 410.3 total yards per game.
Injuries have certainly played a role with defensive backs Roderick Campbell, Brian Bullock, and Keith Watkins II all out for the season, but this team really hasn’t faced a solid passing attack yet. Fortunately, Wisconsin is not going to pass the ball more than it needs to, so it won’t have to worry about things of that nature.
Player to Watch
If the Wildcats have a chance to win this game on the road, Justin Jackson needs to go off. Jackson is a senior and has been Northwestern’s main running back for most of his time in Evanston.
Jackson was the catalyst for Northwestern’s wins over Wisconsin in 2014 and 2015. In 2014, he ran for 162 yards on 33 carries against the Badgers, and the last time these teams met in Madison he ran for 139 yards and a score. However, last year he could only muster 42 yards and Wisconsin gutted out a 21-7 win.
Wisconsin is averaging just a hair over 90 rushing yards per game. The Badgers are a tough group to run against and they know if they shut down Jackson, they will likely win the game.
Free ATS Pick
The Badgers might have something in quarterback Alex Hornibrook. He has been very good this season and is showing why Paul Chryst wanted to start him as a freshman last year. He has completed 70 percent of his passes this season and is averaging 10 yards per attempt. His presence has stabilized the quarterback position for this team and gives them a chance against the teams from the stronger part of the Big Ten.
When these two teams meet, the game is usually low scoring. However, this season may be different if Hornibrook can exploit the Wildcats deficiencies in the secondary.
There is a chance that this one can get out of hand, but my money is on the status quo in this series. This is too many points and while Wisconsin will win, Northwestern will cover. That hook might be especially important so grab it while you can.s
College Football Odds: Badgers 27, Wildcats 14
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