Winners of three straight both straight up and against the spread, the No. 22 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish will hit the road for the third time this season looking to build off their first two impressive road efforts at BC and Michigan State. A walk in the park looks to be ahead of them in the form of a North Carolina Tar Heels squad that only has a win against Old Dominion to show for their work through the first five weeks. Looks can however be deceiving.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 6 game is set for Saturday, October 7, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Kenan Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Notre Dame -16.5
North Carolina +16.5
O/U 62.5
Odds Analysis
The Fighting Irish originally opened as lofty 16.5-point Chapel Hill chalk. That number has since been bet down to -14.5 for a couple of reasons. For starters, Notre Dame could get caught looking ahead here with USC on deck. More importantly, it was announced earlier in the week that quarterback David Wimbush was being bothered by a foot injury and was seen in a walking boot immediately following the game with Miami ( OH ). Brian Kelly didn’t state whether he was questionable or probable in press conferences. My guess is he’ll test the leg out Saturday, and if it feels good, he’ll go.
With ND’s QB1 possibly sidelined, total bettors got an early jump and be the number down to 59.5 from the 62.5 opener. If Wimbush is unable to go, it will be tough for the Irish to do their part in reaching the number with backup Ian Book at the helm. Pair that with the struggles UNC has had offensively, and it’s likely the number to beat plummets even further.
Key Stat
221.8 YPG – This is the amount of yards North Carolina has conceded on the ground per game. Good for the nation’s No. 113 ranked rush defense. Making matters worse, the unit has given up an average of 5.0 yards per carry ( No. 93 ). Though Wimbush plays a huge role in Notre Dame’s success on the ground, Josh Adams has also proven to be a force in running for 658 yards and four touchdowns while ripping off 9.0 yards per carry. Should the former be given a clean bill of health, he’ll likely add to his impressive output for the season against a Tar Heels defense that was just run ragged by the Ramblin’ Wreck’s option attack.
Look-Ahead Situation
The Tar Heels have been decimated by the injury bug and deserve to be the decided underdog in this matchup. However, it’s possible Notre Dame simply just goes through the motions in this one so as to not incur any unnecessary injuries before going on bye ahead of their huge tilt with the USC Trojans in a couple weeks. North Carolina has taken on a decent cast of opponents in Cal, Louisville, Duke and Georgia Tech. They’re yet to win a game in front of the hometown faithful which will no doubt have them going all out in this matchup against an opponent expected to walk all over them. If that actually turns out to be a reality, it could end up being a grave mistake.
Free ATS Pick
Someway, somehow North Carolina is going to find a way to make a game of this. The ride has been way too smooth for the Fighting Irish to start the season. With the bye upcoming and a huge showdown with USC waiting in the wings, I just don’t see how Kelly keeps his kids tuned in for this one. Save for last week’s poor showing in Atlanta, the Tar Heels were competitive in their four previous games. There’s talent on the roster, but injuries and a lack of cohesion has seen them sputter late when it mattered most. I expect last week’s butt kicking paired with Notre Dame being in unchartered territory to give the home team enough of an edge to make this one a whole lot more interesting than the betting line suggests. Regardless of whether Wimbush is a go or not.
College Football Odds: Fighting Irish 34, Tar Heels 30
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