Tell me if you’ve heard this story before. The Ohio State Buckeyes looked lethargic for the first couple games of the season, but kicked it into overdrive once Big Ten play started. Ohio State shredded Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska in consecutive weeks outscoring those three teams by a combined score of 174-28 heading into last week’s game against undefeated Penn State. Although Ohio State had to come from behind in order to notch a one-point victory, it dominated the box score and would have covered the spread if not for a few fluky plays. The Buckeyes will take their show on the road this week when they face the frisky Iowa Hawkeyes.
Watch this regular season Week 10 matchup live on Saturday, November 4, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio State -18
Iowa +18
Over/Under 52
Odds Analysis
Iowa has already pushed one playoff contender to the absolute brink at home this season and its win against rival Iowa State looks a whole lot better after the Cyclones knocked off both Oklahoma and TCU. The Hawkeyes nearly pulled out a win over Penn State in Iowa City last month and stayed within a score of both Michigan State and Northwestern on the road. Interestingly enough, three of their last four games have ended with a final score of 17-10.
The Buckeyes had covered four straight games against Big Ten opponents prior to last week’s game against the Nittany Lions. They were touchdown favorites last week, but were behind the whole way thanks to some bad luck and a couple turnovers. Ohio State was far and away the superior team though and keep that in mind going forward.
Player to Watch
J.T. Barrett has been absolutely phenomenal save one game this season. Barrett wasn’t good against Oklahoma, but in every other game he has posted a QB Rating of at least 158. He has been exceptionally wise with the ball this season, averaging 8.8 yards per pass and he has only thrown one interception in 246 attempts.
Barrett has long been praised for his ability to run the ball too. That came in handy against Penn State last week when he averaged 5.6 yards per carry in addition to completing 85 percent of his passes and throwing for four touchdowns.
There’s no doubt that Barrett is one of the best players in the country, and he should be one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy. Ohio State has scored more touchdowns than any other team in the country and Barrett’s play has been the main reason why.
Key Stat
The Hawkeyes have been rock solid on defense this season and that has kept them in every game. Iowa has only allowed more than 21 points once in eight games, and that was to an Iowa State team that always plays the team tough.
When you delve into conventional statistics, it’s hard to see why this is though. The Hawkeyes don’t force a ton of turnovers and are in the middle of the pack in virtually every defensive category. However, according to Bill Connelly’s advanced metrics this is the 16th best defense in the nation in terms of S&P+. In fact, it’s ranked right behind Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan, all defenses that receive much more acclaim.
Free ATS Pick
It’s a scary proposition to bet against Ohio State, but Iowa should not be getting this many points at home. The Hawkeyes consistently find ways to keep games like this close. Additionally, the Buckeyes have to have an eye on their game against Michigan State in the Horseshoe next week and will be content to get out of here with a win.
College Football Odds: Ohio State 31, Iowa 16
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