Bedlam is no longer taking place on Thanksgiving weekend, but that doesn’t mean this game is any less important. The Oklahoma Sooners and Oklahoma State Cowboys are both 7-1 with a loss in conference. The loser of this game has almost no chance of winning the Big 12 title, while the winner puts itself in a great spot for the conference championship and stays alive for a trip to the playoff. College Gameday decided to head to Stillwater to check out the action firsthand.
Watch this regular season Week 10 matchup live on Saturday, November 4, 2017, at 4 p.m. ET at T. Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. This game will be broadcast on FS1.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma +2.5
Oklahoma State -2.5
Over/Under 76
Odds Analysis
Sharps have jumped on Oklahoma early in this one, relishing the rare chance to back the Sooners as an underdog. Oklahoma opened as a 3.5-point underdog and the line quickly crossed three and has remained where it is now. It wouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see this game close around a pick at this point.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Lincoln Riley’s Sooners. Oklahoma looked like a juggernaut in its three non-conference games, routing UTEP, Ohio State, and Tulane. The Sooners easily covered the spread in each of those three games and saw massive spreads over the next month. However, the Sooners really struggled following that, playing one-possession games against the next four Big 12 opponents on their schedule. They didn’t cover a game during that time and lost outright to Iowa State.
Last week, the Sooners finally got another cover, but they didn’t deserve it. Oklahoma was up 15 and still throwing the ball with under two minutes to play when Baker Mayfield found CeeDee Lamb for the covering touchdown.
The Cowboys also looked great in non-conference play, beating every opponent by at least 35 and racking up three straight covers. However, like Oklahoma, they haven’t been as good in conference play and had to fight to beat both Texas Tech and Texas. Oklahoma State did score a big win last week against West Virginia though and was in front of the number most of the way.
Key Stats
These are two of the best passing attacks in the nation, and this one is expected to have a lot of fireworks.
Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph are both averaging 370 yards through the air this season and both offenses are in the top six in terms of scoring. These offenses have not been stopped all year and it’s hard to imagine either defense is going to be able to put up much of a fight.
Oklahoma State’s pass defense has fared much better than Oklahoma’s though. The Cowboys are allowing 6.4 yards per pass, while the Sooners are allowing 7.9 yards per attempt.
Last Meeting
When these teams met at the end of last season, the Big 12 crown was on the line. Both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State entered the game at 9-2 and the winner would win the title.
However, while Oklahoma’s offense showed up, Oklahoma State’s did not. Rudolph was totally ineffective in this game, completing just 44 percent of his passes on the night. That offset a pretty good performance from the ground game.
Meanwhile, the Sooners were fantastic in all aspects. They racked up over 600 yards on the day with both the run game and the pass game clicking on all cylinders. However, all the playmakers from that game are no longer on the team.
Free ATS Pick
I’m in with the crowd backing the Sooners. The much maligned Mike Stoops will find a way to hamstring the Cowboys offense and stave off criticism for his defense’s performance. Mayfield will continue to be fantastic through the air and Oklahoma will get the win.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 34
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