Who would have thought that the Iowa State Cyclones would be ranked in mid-November? The Cyclones have proven to be one of the tougher opponents in the Big 12 to dispatch of and have already knocked off Oklahoma and TCU this season. Additionally, they came very close to beating Iowa and West Virginia and have looked alive in every game thus far this year. The Oklahoma State Cowboys know that Matt Campbell will have this team ready when they come to town this Saturday.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 11, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma State -6.5
Iowa State +6.5
Over/Under 62
Odds Analysis
It wasn’t too much of a surprise to see Iowa State open as a touchdown underdog in this game. The Cyclones may be hanging around in these games, but they are still a middle of a pack team statistically. Still, bettors are onboard with the Cyclones, bringing this line down a half-point from the open.
Iowa State is 7-1-1 ATS this season and has won three games as an outright underdog. The Cyclones defense has been pivotal during that timeframe, but they have gotten a lot of turnover luck too. They are +10 in turnover margin this year and that’s as big a story as any for Iowa State.
The Cowboys have to be reeling somewhat after losing Bedlam again. As much as we think that Oklahoma-Oklahoma State is a real rivalry, the Sooners have dominated and that had to have taken the wind out of OSU’s sails. The total of 62 is the lowest in an Oklahoma State game so far this season.
Matchup to Watch
For the Cyclones to knock off all three of the best teams in the conference, they are going to need to have a big game from Kyle Kempt. Kempt has been great since replacing Jacob Park as the team’s starter and is 4-1 this season. However, after a phenomenal debut against Oklahoma, he has failed to crack 250 yards through the air.
Oklahoma State’s defense is susceptible to good quarterbacks. Both Baker Mayfield and Kenny Hill had a lot of success against the Cowboys and the Pokes are allowing 273.3 yards through the air this season. The run defense has been a lot more stout and is more capable of finishing the job provided the pass defense plays well enough.
Key Injury
James Washington is the best receiver in the country. It was a surprise when he decided to return to Stillwater for one more season after being told he would be a second- or third-round pick in the NFL Draft, but he was confident that he and Mason Rudolph could get Oklahoma State a Big 12 title.
That doesn’t look likely now, yet there is no doubt that he has continued to impress this season. His numbers are absolutely bonkers. Washington is averaging 21.8 yards per reception and is the deep ball threat that offenses dream about and defenses fear. He already has four receptions of 60 or more yards this season and torched the Sooners before being forced to leave with an ankle injury.
Washington is officially questionable for this week’s game against the Cyclones, but if he is unable to go, the Cowboys might be in real trouble.
Free ATS Pick
Provided Washington plays, I like Oklahoma State in this one. The Cyclones have gotten lucky with turnovers this season and that tends to even out over the course of the year. Iowa State is a great story, but this is about winning money and this team doesn’t do anything special that makes me think they can hang with OSU.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma State 38, Iowa State 27
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