The No. 10 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys have passed all their tests on the road having secured wins at South Alabama, PITT and Texas Tech, but this week’s road tilt in Austin just might be the toughest of the bunch with Tom Herman’s Texas Longhorns coming in playing some truly inspired ball. Off a tough defeat in the Red River Shootout, the Horns will be eager to get back on the playing field in hopes of handing their rivals a second Big 12 defeat.
Watch this regular season Week 8 matchup live on Saturday, October 21, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET from Royal Texas Memorial Carter Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cowboys -6
Longhorns +6
O/U 65.5
Odds Analysis
The Cowpokes have been the clamored side since the betting line first opened. Mike Gundy’s kids have been bet up to 7.5-point road favorites with better than 71 percent of the betting handle riding the visitors. It makes sense when you take into account how badly Texas has struggled defending the pass paired with Mason Rudolph and company owning the No. 1 ranked passing attack. The market had no problem pushing it past the touchdown threshold, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see this number continue to climb.
Not much to report on from a total perspective with it standing pat at 57.5 since the open. What is surprising however is the fact that over 57 percent of the handle is riding the under. That is not the correlation you’d expect with so much Cowboys money driving the pointspread north. It likely has more to do with the job Texas’ defense did against the power offenses of USC, Iowa State and Oklahoma. Look for the total to trend a bit south closer to kick-off.
Key Stat
66.7% - Rudolph is in the midst of his finest campaign as a senior. His near 67 percent completion percentage is the best of his career in Stillwater, and the Longhorns defense is one that looks to be ripe for him to take advantage of. On top of conceding just under 265.0 passing yards per game ( No. 109 ), Texas is allowing an average of 14.3 yards per completion. Only 18 other teams have given up more yards in that stat category. That could prove to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back with Rudolph completing passes at the highest percentage of his collegiate career, and Texas giving up huge chunks of yards on completed passes.
Player to Watch
Sam Ehlinger – No ifs, ands or buts about it, Ehlinger is the man that should be under center the rest of the way. The offense simply just looks more confident with him leading the charge, and that’s been extremely evident over the last two weeks with the freshman throwing for a combined 658 yards and a 3:1 TD/INT ratio. He’s also proven to be a dual-threat quarterback that gives the offense another dimension if need be. OK-State possesses a middling defense against both the run and the pass, and it nearly blew a two-touchdown lead in Lubbock earlier this season. For Texas to have a shot at pulling this upset, the frosh must continue to excel as the QB1.
Free ATS Pick
This one has back and forth affair written all over it. Texas will no doubt give up its fair share of yardage and points to the potent Cowpokes attack, but it more than has enough in the tank offensively to make a game of it. The Longhorns have done an excellent job competing against ranked opponents taking USC to overtime at the Coliseum before losing by three, and then battling all the way back from a 20-0 deficit last week to take a 24-23 lead briefly before going on to lose by five. Both matchups were covered. OKST has the firepower to blow anybody’s doors off, but I simply don’t foresee that occurring in this matchup with the Horns playing confidently in front of what will no doubt be a raucous Austin crowd. Look for a ton of points to hit the board in this one, and for the end result to go down to the wire.
College Football Odds: Longhorns 47, Cowboys 44
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