It will be a while before another team’s fans request the Alabama Crimson Tide. Vanderbilt’s fans started chanting they wanted the Tide the week prior to their showdown against Alabama in Nashville and quickly realized that they made a horrible mistake. Alabama completely dominated Vanderbilt in a laugher and didn’t even have starter Jalen Hurts throw as much as backup Tua Tagovailoa. Bama now has its sights set on a team that has given it trouble these last three years, the Ole Miss Rebels.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 5 game is set for Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 9 p.m.
ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ole Miss +27.5
Alabama -27.5
Odds Analysis
Tell me if you’ve heard this one before. Alabama coasted through its two games against Mountain West opponents over the last two weeks before dropping the hammer on Vanderbilt last week. The Crimson Tide dominated the Commodores defense so thoroughly that they single-handedly covered the over with 17 points to spare in a 59-0 smashing of Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt had the best scoring defense in the nation prior to its loss to Alabama, but that performance moved them down 25 spots to 26th best in the nation.
The good news for Ole Miss is that it has had a week off to prepare for Alabama. The Rebels have yet to cover a game this year as the defense let them down against South Alabama and UT Martin, while the entire team shut down in the second half of the Cal game. Ole Miss has somehow given Alabama games the last few years, but this year will probably be much different without Hugh Freeze.
Key Stat
It’s laughable to look at some of the numbers Alabama has put up on the season. The Crimson Tide allowed Vanderbilt to have just three first downs the entire game this past Saturday and never gave the Commodores a chance. It’s always been about a strong run game and a great defense in Tuscaloosa and the school is once again among the Top 5 in both of those categories.
Maybe the most important thing though is the very low usage rates on this team. Alabama recruits better than anyone in the country and has five stars across the field. That means they don’t have to rely on just one player at any given position and that lessens the risk of injury. No player has touched the ball more than 13 times a game, outside of the quarterback position, and that’s beautiful at this stage.
Matchup to Watch
If there’s even a remote chance of Ole Miss pulling off the upset, it will be by making big plays in the passing game. The Rebels have been able to have success against Alabama’s secondary in recent years and they have been able to exploit it like no other team, save Clemson, has.
Ole Miss does have some great receivers for Shea Patterson to throw to. A.J. Brown, DaMarkus Lodge, and D.K. Metcalf are all big play threats averaging at least 15 yards a reception this season. These players love to stretch the field and go deep, so Alabama must not get overaggressive.
Free ATS Pick
It’s rare for me to consider laying a ton of points, but this feels like a revenge game for Saban. This Ole Miss team has been a constant thorn in Saban’s side the last few years and this will be a chance for him to fully exorcise those demons. Ole Miss can’t stop anyone on defense and I will be shocked if Alabama doesn’t have a ton of success on the ground. Look for Alabama to win this one BIG.
College Football Odds: Alabama 48, Ole Miss 10
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