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The Mississippi State Bulldogs have quietly put together another great season. Dan Mullen’s bunch has a chance to go 9-3 with a win over the Ole Miss Rebels in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving. As for Ole Miss, the Rebels are looking to become bowl eligible with a win over their in-state rival. A loss would mean a 5-7 season and probably be the end of Matt Luke’s time in Oxford.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Thursday, November 23, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ole Miss +17
Mississippi State -17
Odds Analysis
Ole Miss has not been bad this season. Despite losing Hugh Freeze right before the start of the season, the Rebels have been decent. The offense has been humming right along, even in spite of an injury to Shea Patterson, but the defense has been problematic. The Rebels have given up at least 22 points to every opponent they have faced and that has meant a slew of overs. The over is 8-3 in Ole Miss games this year.
No team played Alabama tougher than Mississippi State did this season. The Bulldogs actually led the Crimson Tide for most of the way and dominated time of possession before eventually succumbing to Alabama late in the fourth. Mississippi State has had a very good defense this season and that has helped this team to a 7-4 ATS mark and under is 8-3 in its games.
Coaching Angle
Luke was the co-offensive coordinator under Freeze from 2012-2016, and was elevated to the top spot following Freeze’s resignation. The offense has continued to look good under his tenure and Ole Miss has been solid on that end in every game except the Alabama game.
The much maligned Todd Grantham took over as defensive coordinator at Mississippi State in the offseason and has really retooled this unit. Despite being seen as a high-priced failure at both Georgia and Louisville, Mullen took a chance on him and that has paid off in spades. The Bulldogs defense has performed great against every team they should have defeated and Grantham was able to totally shut down Matt Canada’s LSU offense.
It will be interesting to see how Grantham fares against Ole Miss. He faced off against Freeze once back in 2012, and held the Rebels offense to just 10 points.
Player to Watch
Nick Fitzgerald had one of the hardest tasks in the country last season. Fitzgerald had to replace the best quarterback in school history in Dak Prescott and everyone knew that the Bulldogs would take a step back. He struggled through the early part of the season, but caught fire late and roasted Ole Miss for 258 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to make the Bulldogs bowl eligible.
This season, he has been very good too. Fitzgerald has struggled at times, throwing two interceptions in four different games this season, but makes a ton of big plays too. Fitzgerald has run for over 100 yards and a touchdown in five of his last six games and is set to pass the 1,000-yard mark on the ground once again. He is doing it all on a team that doesn’t have much else and Mullen is earning his reputation as a quarterback whisperer with Fitzgerald’s success.
Free ATS Pick
Ole Miss doesn’t have a great defense, but Mississippi State is pretty predictable on offense. Fitzgerald is going to be the focal point and this team doesn’t throw deep. No player on the team has more than 275 receiving yards and Fitzgerald dinks and dunks underneath after he spreads you out with his legs. It’s easier said than done to stop, but I think the Rebels will keep him limited enough to get the cover here.
College Football Odds: Mississippi State 31, Ole Miss 23
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