The Penn State Nittany Lions would like you to know that there is a third team vying for the Big Ten East. Whereas most of the attention usually goes to either Michigan or Ohio State, Penn State has picked up right where it left off last season and continued its run atop the division. The Nittany Lions haven’t been tested yet, but will this week when they go on the road for the first time this season. They will take on the Iowa Hawkeyes, a team that is notorious for pulling off upsets, just ask last year’s Michigan team.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 4 game is set for Saturday, September 23, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Penn State -12.5
Iowa +12.5
Odds Analysis
Penn State is 2-0-1 ATS on the season with two easy covers thanks to shut outs over Group of Five teams. The Nittany Lions pasted Akron and Georgia State by a combined score of 108-0 and looked like a complete team in both wins. They were a little less fluid in their win over Pitt and had some issues on offense after a strong first quarter. Pitt actually outgained this team on offense in that game.
Few teams can win as ugly as Iowa can. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU, but 1-2 ATS this season and failed to cover two of their three games as a favorite. This week will see them as an underdog for the first time this season and early action has moved against them. This spread opened at 11 but has gone up to 12.5 now.
Last Year’s Meeting
Iowa still feels the sting from last year’s game between these two sides. Penn State carved up this defense on the ground running the ball 52 times for 359 yards and three touchdowns. It was a dominating performance for the boys in the trenches as every running back averaged at least six yards per carry in this game.
Conversely, the Hawkeyes couldn’t do anything on the ground against the Nittany Lions defense. Iowa ran the ball 26 times for 30 yards and that made this offense one-dimensional. For his part, C.J. Beathard played well for Iowa, essentially matching Trace McSorley’s numbers despite not having a run game.
This year, Iowa is at a disadvantage since it doesn’t have Beathard. Both lines should perform better at home but not having a quarterback like him hurts.
Key Stat
Penn State’s defense is only behind Vanderbilt’s in terms of scoring defense, but this unit isn’t unbeatable. The Nittany Lions are outside the top 20 in total defense and had the benefit of facing a one-dimensional offense in Akron and a very bad offense that could only score 10 points on an FCS team in Georgia State.
Against Pitt, this defense did show some weakness and it will be up to Kirk Ferentz to find ways to exploit that. The Panthers put up 342 total yards of offense against this defense, 30 more than Penn State did against them in their game.
Free ATS Pick
I won’t lie to you. Betting on Iowa is a hard thing to ask. There’s no great reason to back this team and they consistently seem to fall on their face against lesser opponents during the course of the season.
However, the Hawkeyes typically play good teams tough, especially at home. They knocked off Michigan and routed a solid Nebraska team in Iowa City last year. Iowa finds ways to mess things up for their opponent and gets teams to play their style of football. Somehow, someway, they will find a way to do so again and knock off Penn State on Saturday night.
College Football Odds: Hawkeyes 24, Nittany Lions 20
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