The Penn State Nittany Lions can’t win the Big Ten East, but they can finish the regular season with 10 wins. James Franklin has turned this program around since taking over and has this team regularly competing with Michigan and Ohio State once again. Winning 10 games would probably assure Penn State of a New Year’s Six Bowl and a ranking in the CFP Top 10 as well. All the Nittany Lions have to do is beat the Maryland Terrapins to close out the year.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Saturday, November 25, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Maryland Stadium in College Park, Maryland. This game will be broadcast on Big Ten Network.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Penn State -22
Maryland +22
Over/Under 58
Odds Analysis
This spread has creeped up a bit from where it opened. Penn State was a 21-point favorite at open and is now a 22-point favorite as of Thursday. The Nittany Lions have dominated this series historically, with a 37-2-1 record against the Terrapins.
Maryland has gotten really unlucky this season with injuries and is looking forward to the offseason. The Terrapins are sitting at 4-7 and have been an underdog in all but one game of Big Ten play. This team has been feisty, knocking off Minnesota and Indiana as decent-sized underdogs, so at least the Terps can go into the offseason with their heads held high.
The Nittany Lions started the season 6-1-1 ATS, but have failed to cover in three straight games. Penn State was a double-digit favorite on the road against Michigan State but lost outright and failed to cover against both Rutgers and Nebraska.
Player to Watch
Saquon Barkley was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy through the midway point of the season, but has not been too impressive since the Michigan game. Barkley ran for 44 yards against Ohio State, 63 yards against Michigan State, and 35 yards against Rutgers. Poor performances like that in two losses were enough to sink his candidacy, but he has still had a very fine season.
Barkley has added another dimension to his game because of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. He is averaging a little more than four receptions per game and has shown big play ability in the flat. Barkley is averaging 12.8 yards per catch and that statistic is more in line with something you see out of a wide receiver.
He has an uncanny knack of making opponents miss and Maryland needs to gang tackle him or else he will make a play.
Key Injury
You can’t tell the story of Maryland football this season without talking about the injuries to the quarterback position. Tyrell Pigrom and Kasim Hill were the top two quarterbacks at the start of the season and Maryland felt very good about both. However, both suffered torn ACL’s within the first three games of the season and that spelled the end of the Terps.
To be fair to Max Bortenschlager, he has done better than most third-string quarterbacks would do in this situation. Bortenschlager clearly isn’t the athlete that Hill or Pigrome are, but has been serviceable and helped lead the Terps to the two upset wins. He has completed just 51.3 percent of his passes this season and he has only averaged 5.7 yards per carry. However, he does have a two-to-one touchdown to interception ratio.
Free ATS Pick
Penn State has a lot more talent than Maryland, but the Terps haven’t quit on DJ Durkin. Give credit to the second-year coach for that. This is a proud football team and they won’t let Penn State walk all over them. Look for Penn State to get the win, but Maryland’s defense to play tough and get the cover for the Terps.
College Football Odds: Penn State 27, Maryland 14
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