Typically, the Big Ten noon slot is a snoozer. The television networks decide to give us two of the more uninteresting games on the schedule and put the marquee game later on in the day. This week is an exception to that.
Mark Dantonio has the Michigan State Spartans back in the role they are familiar with. Following a very disappointing campaign last year, Sparty has already claimed one scalp and is looking for more blood. They will be taking a Penn State Nittany Lions squad that must be wondering what they did to upset the schedule makers. Penn State has now played Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State in three straight weeks and will be looking forward to the easier teams in the Big Ten the rest of the way.
This matchup in Week 10 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 4, 2017,
at 12 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. This game will be broadcast on FOX.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Penn State -7.5
Michigan State +7.5
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
Penn State has been great against the number this season. Although the Nittany Lions suffered a heartbreaking loss against Ohio State last week, they were able to cover the number against the Buckeyes and have now covered four in a row.
The Spartans are looking to avenge a tough triple-overtime loss in Evanston against Northwestern last week. Neither team was able to establish the run, but both quarterbacks had a lot of success through the air and combined to throw for over 800 yards and seven touchdowns on the afternoon.
Sharp action has already moved this line down from its opening. Penn State was originally a nine-point favorite and that quickly moved down to where it currently sits. I expect this one to end up at seven or less by the time it kicks off.
Player to Watch
Brian Lewerke has had an interesting season. Michigan State’s quarterback has looked very sharp this season and has given this team a steady hand when it comes to moving the ball through the air. However, his most productive games have been losses for the Spartans.
Against Notre Dame and Northwestern, Lewerke threw the ball more than 50 times and finished with over 300 yards in both games. In Michigan State’s six wins, he only threw more than 30 times once and didn’t throw for over 250 yards in any of those outings. That’s an interesting tale of the tape to say the least.
Matchup to Watch
Saquon Barkley will be looking to bounce back after being held in check by Ohio State’s dominant defensive line last week. Barkley was only able to average 2.1 yards per carry and the Heisman Trophy hopeful saw his chances of hoisting the trophy take a huge hit as he couldn’t get going in the receiving game either.
Unfortunately, Barkley will be facing another front that is very tough to run on. The Spartans are allowing just 2.8 yards per carry this season and are one of six teams in the country allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground. That means Trace McSorley might have to win the game through the air.
Free ATS Pick
I love Michigan State getting more than a touchdown at home against pretty much any team in the country. Dantonio has the Spartans playing great football and this team is going to be able to put the clamps on Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions look worn out at the tail end of that game against Ohio State and the hogs up front must be ready for a break.
Don’t be surprised if the Spartans pull off the outright upset in this one. Dantonio knows how to win games like this.
College Football Odds: Michigan State 20, Penn State 16
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