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The Missouri Tigers and Purdue Boilermakers will meet in a game that is expected to be one of the highest scoring this weekend. Missouri is fourth in the nation in total offense, averaging 619 yards a game, but can’t seem to stop anybody on defense. It’s a similar story with Purdue, who moved the ball really effectively against Louisville and ripped through Ohio, but has defensive issues of its own. The team that holds the ball last might be the winning side here.
This matchup in Week 3 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 16, 2017,
at 4 p.m. ET at Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri. This game will be broadcast on SEC Network.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Purdue +7.5
Missouri -7.5
Over/Under 78
Odds Analysis
Tracking back to last season, Missouri has not been good at covering games recently. The Tigers are just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games and have played some laughers. Their inability to stop teams on defense has meant that their last four non-conference games have gone over the total.
Purdue has been one of the best teams in the country to back the over with, dating back to last season. Over is 12-4 in the Boilermakers’ last 16 games as this offense has shown it can score some points. They have also been good away from West Lafayette too, with a mark of 4-0 ATS on the road.
Coaching Angle
Changes are already being made along the defensive side of the ball in Missouri. Defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross was recently fired after a lackluster start for the Tigers.
It was a surprise that Cross came back to the team in the first place after he was demoted by head coach Barry Odom midway through last season. Odom has not yet announced who will take over the playcalling responsibilities, but he did it last season and might end up doing so again this season.
Firing Cross this early into the season is not a good look for the second-year head coach. Odom was supposed to be a defensive whiz under former coach Gary Pinkel, but his defense went into the tank last year and has yet to climb out.
On the other side of the field, new Purdue coach Jeff Brohm has brought a spark to this offense. The former Western Kentucky head coach has had some success thus far and has rejuvenated the fan base.
Matchup to Watch
The Boilermakers have had a very productive backfield in the early part of the season. David Blough has been a very solid quarterback, completing almost 75 percent of his passes and averaging more than 10 yards per attempt. It’s not like he’s doing this against terrible competition either as Purdue’s first two games of the season were against Ohio and Louisville.
Purdue can run the ball effectively too. Tario Fuller and Brian Lankford-Johnson are each averaging over six yards per carry on the season and the Boilers as a whole are toting the rock for 4.8 yards a run.
Although Missouri has really struggled stopping the opposition at some points this season, the defense hasn’t been as bad as you might think. The Tigers will have a new playcaller on Saturday, so Brohm won’t be able to go off of any coach’s prior tendencies.
Free ATS Pick
Missouri is going to move the ball on this team. The Tigers actually outgained the Gamecocks last week, but turnovers did them in at the end of the day. Since they struggle on defense, quarterback Drew Lock knows that this team can’t afford to turn the ball over and expect to win.
This game will be high scoring, but the total is too high. Missouri’s defense isn’t as bad as you might think and that will lead to a Tigers cover and a game that falls short of the total.
College Football Odds: Tigers 39, Boilermakers 24
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