David Cutcliffe has done it again. Cutcliffe has now taken the Duke Blue Devils to a bowl game in five of the last six seasons and will look to pick up his second bowl win at Duke. The Blue Devils are favorites to knock off the Northern Illinois Huskies, another team who has struggled in bowl season. Northern Illinois missed out on a bowl last season, but lost four straight bowl games from 2012-2015 and three of those losses were by at least three touchdowns.
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College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Duke -5.5
Northern Illinois +5.5
Over/Under 57
Odds Analysis
Duke started the season like a ball of fire. The Blue Devils won each of their first four games and covered the spread handily in all four. However, after getting drubbed by Miami in their next game, the team couldn’t buy a win. Duke lost six in a row and didn’t notch a single cover either, despite being favored against Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Army. The Blue Devils responded nicely at the end of the year though, knocking off Georgia Tech and Wake Forest in successive weeks as underdogs to clinch a spot in the postseason.
Northern Illinois always plays a tough non-conference slate and this year was no different. The Huskies went 4-0 ATS against other conferences with an outright win against Nebraska and nearly knocked off both Boston College and San Diego State. In conference play, Northern Illinois was solid, posting a 6-2 record, but couldn’t pick up covers. The school went 2-6 ATS in MAC action.
Matchup to Watch
The Huskies typically have one of the best defenses of any Group of Five team in the country and the same is true this year. Northern Illinois has been strong against the run this season, holding opponents to just 112.2 yards on the ground per game. It’s not like this team played a lot of passing teams either. They held both San Diego State and Boston College in check earlier in the season and both those teams love to run the football.
Although Duke typically has been a passing team under Cutcliffe, this season the emphasis has been on the ground game. Daniel Jones has not been the most efficient quarterback in the country and checks the ball down a lot. He is averaging just 5.9 yards per pass and has thrown one more touchdown than interception this year.
Shaun Wilson and Brittain Brown have been the two backs that Cutcliffe has turned to this year and both are averaging over five yards per carry. If Northern Illinois can stop these two and force Duke to throw, it could be a long night for Duke’s offense.
Player to Watch
Freshman Marcus Childers took over the starting quarterback job at the start of conference play and has not relinquished it since. Childers has been pretty good for a freshman quarterback, but has not been asked to do much. He is averaging just six yards per pass attempt and is mostly checking down and throwing underneath routes.
He is the team’s second-leading rusher this season and that added dynamic led Rod Carey to turn to him. Childers has ran for 454 yards and five touchdowns this season and is running for a healthy average when you take out sack yardage.
Additionally, he is not making mistakes with the football. Through eight games, he has thrown just five interceptions and he must be given credit for that.
Free ATS Pick
The Huskies are a live dog in this one. Their defense can keep it close and I think this game should be more of a coin flip than what it is. Grab the points.
College Football Odds: Duke 20, Northern Illinois 17
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