It’s amazing to think that the Georgia Bulldogs and the Oklahoma Sooners have never squared off before. You couldn’t imagine a more picturesque setting for these storied programs to meet for the first time though. For the first time since the 2001 season, this year’s Rose Bowl won’t feature a team from the PAC 12 or the Big Ten. That year it was Miami and Nebraska squaring off for the national championship during the BCS era, and this year will mark the first time it happens as part of the College Football Playoff.
Watch the Rose Bowl live on Monday, January 1, 2018, at 5 p.m. ET at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia -1
Oklahoma +1
Over/Under
Odds Analysis
It’s been a season of streaks for the Sooners when it comes to the betting odds. Oklahoma covered each of its first three games in non-conference play with ease, but struggled to get its feet under it when Big 12 play started. The Sooners failed to cover four straight, losing outright to Iowa State at home and only winning their other three games by one score. However, Oklahoma rallied to cover five of its last six with the lone loss being a 41-3 victory over Kansas that failed to cover the spread by two points.
Georgia has been a solid team to bet on all season long. The Bulldogs are 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS and have only been an underdog once all year. That was early in the season against Notre Dame, but a close win over the Irish and a thumping of Mississippi State two weeks later changed the perception surrounding Georgia.
Matchup to Watch
It will be strength versus strength when Oklahoma is on offense. Georgia has won games with its defense all season long. The Bulldogs have the second-best pass defense in the country and are fourth in terms of total defense this year.
However, Georgia has yet to face a quarterback like Baker Mayfield. The Bulldogs have really not played any teams that like to air it out with the exception of Missouri, and did not look good in that game. Drew Lock threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns against Georgia’s secondary and for a while it looked like Missouri could actually pull off the upset.
Mayfield had one of the best seasons we have ever seen from a quarterback. He is a virtual lock to win the Heisman Trophy in a couple weeks and has been extremely efficient throughout the year. Mayfield completed 71 percent of his passes and averaged a mind-boggling 11.8 yards per attempt. That’s a ludicrous number in itself, but when you factor in his 41 to 5 touchdown-to-interception ratio it’s really bonkers.
This will be a great matchup between one of the best offensive minds in Lincoln Riley and one of the best defensive minds in Kirby Smart.
Key Stat
There’s no subtlety to Georgia’s offensive gameplan. The Bulldogs have a stable of fantastic running backs and will look to control the ball with a dominant ground game. Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and D’Andre Swift have combined to run for nearly seven yards an attempt and have found the end zone 29 times this season. Having these three in the backfield has made things very easy for Jake Fromm, who has averaged just 18 passes per game.
Just as Georgia hasn’t seen a quarterback like Mayfield, the Sooners haven’t seen a ground game like Georgia’s. Oklahoma did face Ohio State in early September and shut down the Buckeyes run game, but Ohio State had some problems running the ball against top teams all year.
Free ATS Pick
A lot will be made of the Heisman curse, but I expect Mayfield to shine here. Provided he gets time to throw the ball and his line holds up, he will carve up Georgia’s defense. The Sooners will eventually roll eight in the box and dare Fromm to throw, but the youngster just won’t have enough to win it for the Bulldogs.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma 38, Georgia 28
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