College Football ATS Picks - San Diego State at Hawaii Game Preview

Everything looked so promising at one time for the San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs won six straight games to start the season and scored big wins against Arizona State and Stanford to shoot up the rankings and look like the mid-major to beat for a spot in a New Year’s Eve bowl. However, things have fallen apart in the last two weeks as the offense has struggled to score points against both Boise State and Fresno State in two double-digit losses. Now, the Aztecs must leave the mainland and head to the islands to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.

This matchup in Week 9 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 28, 2017, at 11:15 p.m. ET at Aloha Stadium in Halawa, Hawaii This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Diego State -9.5
Hawaii +9.5
Over/Under 55.5

Odds Analysis

Hawaii has not covered a game since its seas opener against Massachusetts. The Rainbow Warriors were three-point underdogs then and ended up winning outright, but have been unable to get back to putting money in bettors’ pockets since that moment. Hawaii has failed to cover each of its last five games and is sitting at just 3-4 on the season now.

San Diego State must be wondering what went wrong. The Aztecs had some amazing wins and knew that they were in the driver’s seat for the Group of Five spot thanks to a tough schedule. Unfortunately, the wheels flew off the last two weeks and now San Diego State is just looking for a Mountain West title.

Player to Watch

Rashaad Penny has been able to pick up right where Donnel Pumphrey left off. There was a major question about who would take over Pumphrey’s role this offseason, but Penny has filled those shoes nicely. He already has 1,115 rushing yards this year and has found the end zone 10 times.

He has been unable to get much traction on the ground in San Diego State’s last two games though and that derailed its chances to win. Penny was only able to muster 131 total yards in his last two games combined and the Aztecs have not been able to move the ball without his production. Prior to that, he had surpassed the 100-yard mark in every game.

Penny should have success against a Hawaii defense that is one of the worst in the country. The Rainbow Warriors are giving up 478.4 total yards an outing and Penny should be able to rip off some big runs.

Key Stat

Don’t look now, but Hawaii has turned into a running team under head coach Nick Rolovich. While the Rainbow Warriors still spread you out, the main weapon on offense has been Diocemy Saint Juste and he has already surpassed 1,000 rushing yards on the season. He is averaging six yards per carry and is on pace to smash the record for rushing yards in a season at Hawaii.

In the past, Hawaii was always about chucking the ball as much as possible and hoping to outscore opponents. That philosophy has changed, but this team is still more than adequate through the air. Dru Brown has 1,816 passing yards this year and is able to help the team move the ball that way.

Free ATS Pick

Rocky Long is one of the best coaches you’ve never heard of. Long was a winner at New Mexico despite his meager resources there, and has been fantastic since being hired at San Diego State. His teams almost always have great running games and solid defense and this year is no exception despite the last two games. The Aztecs are just going to be too much for the Rainbow Warriors and will cruise to a win.

College Football Odds: San Diego State 38, Hawaii 20

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