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The Troy Trojans will receive a hero’s welcome when they take the field next week against the South Alabama Jaguars. Last week, Troy stunned the college football world by going into LSU and knocking off the Tigers in a night game. The win put Troy back on the college football radar and was a huge feather in the cap of the Sun Belt Conference. These Trojans are the favorites to win the conference at this point and will now try to get their second win in Sun Belt play.
Watch this regular season Week 7 matchup live on Wednesday, October 11, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Alabama +17
Troy -17
Odds Analysis
South Alabama is not off to a strong start this season. The Jaguars have looked listless on offense against FBS opponents and they tried to remedy that two weeks ago by firing offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent. Offensive line coach Richard Owens is the new man in charge, and the initial results weren’t too bad. The Jaguars actually moved the ball a little bit against Louisiana Tech and were only down by one entering the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs responded with 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and sent the Jaguars to a 1-4 record this season with a 2-3 ATS mark.
There’s not much to suggest that Troy was going to pull off such a huge upset last week. The Trojans lost by 11 to Boise in their opener and struggled to get past New Mexico State and Akron. In fact, Troy was 0-4 ATS before pulling off the upset as a 20-point underdog to LSU. This defense is very good though and that makes them dangerous. The Tigers weren’t able to score until there were four minutes left in the third quarter against this Trojans defense.
Key Stat
Troy’s defense is currently 31st in the nation in terms of total defense, allowing just 5.1 yards per play this season. It’s not like the Trojans have played a bunch of nobodies either. New Mexico State and Boise State both have good offenses for Group of Five teams, and LSU’s offense isn’t as bad as people think.
The key to this defense is its ability to stop the run. Troy has a great safety in Cedarius Rookard, and he is able to drop into the box and be an extra linebacker when the opponent looks like it plans to run the ball. With him leading the way, the Trojans are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, and forced four turnovers out of LSU last week.
Matchup to Watch
Neither one of South Alabama’s quarterbacks has played particularly well this season. Cole Garvin entered the season as the starter, but was injured in the opening game and only recently returned to action. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes last week against Louisiana Tech and wasn’t very effective against a bad Ole Miss team in the opener.
Dallas Davis has been pretty much the same, but his numbers are buoyed by his performance against lowly Alabama A&M. In his two games against FBS competition, Davis has managed just 232 passing yards and is only completing 50 percent of his passes.
Neither one of the quarterbacks is much of a runner, so that further hamstrings this offense. Troy shouldn’t have much of a problem shutting down this passing game.
Free ATS Pick
The under should be a great bet in this game when it comes out. Troy doesn’t have the type of offense that is going to put up a ton of points, but will be able to really limit South Alabama. This is probably too many points and if I had to take a side, I’d grab the Jaguars. But the best bet is the under.
College Football Odds: Troy 24, South Alabama 10
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