The Texas A&M Aggies have rebounded nicely from that shocking loss to UCLA opening week that saw the Bruins battle back from what seemed to be an insurmountable deficit to pull out the victory. South Carolina got out to a nice start to their 2017 campaign, but enters this tilt losers of two straight against the spread. With the big boys ahead on the schedule for Kevin Sumlin’s kids, this game amounts to a must-have win for the home team.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 5 game is set for Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kyle Field. This game will be broadcast live on the SEC Network.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Carolina +8
Texas A&M -8
O/U 55.5
Odds Analysis
This game’s betting line has been on a roller coaster ride since first opening at -8. The Aggies got most of the early love with the line creeping up to -9.5 and -10, but has since gone back down to -9 and then -8 where it opened initially. Though it’s won all three meetings with the Gamecocks in SEC play, Texas A&M only went on to cover two of those three contests. That could be one of the reasons why only 57.4 percent of the handle is backing the home team. South Carolina’s offense stinks out loud in the eyes of public, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see this impost go back up a little more before kick-off.
The total has taken a precipitous fall since first opening at 55.5. It’s down to 49 with nearly 60 percent of the action taken expecting a low scorer. That’s pretty surprising when you put the teams under the microscope. SC will look to pass the ball with it the bread and butter of the offense, and A&M ranks No. 121 defending the pass. Though the Gamecocks are only scoring 24.0 points per game, Jake Bentley should have some success throwing the pigskin. Texas A&M is also giving up over 30 points per game. Look for the total to inch higher the closer we get to Saturday.
Key Stat
2.8 – The Gamecocks 14.7 yard per point average is just above average. The offense has had no issues moving the ball between the 20s, but when it comes to scoring touchdowns, it’s had major problems. It’s averaging just under three touchdowns per game. That can’t happen in this spot against an Aggies defense allowing the opposition to tally 5.0 touchdowns per game. If South Carolina is to put a scare in the College Station faithful, it must make it a point to finish off its scoring drives with touchdowns instead of field goals.
Look-ahead Situation
A brutal schedule lies ahead for the Aggies with Alabama and a trip to The Swamp lined up next on the docket. It’s also coming off an exhilarating overtime win against the Arkansas Razorbacks. So not only will Kevin Sumlin’s team need to avoid looking ahead, it’s also going to have to deal with the Gamecocks in a major hangover spot. Those are two gigantic red flags you must consider when deciding who to take in this non-divisional SEC tilt.
Free ATS Pick
I’d feel much more comfortable about my pick in this game if the Gamecocks actually had a sound running game, but I’m going to throw caution to the wind and suggest taking the points with Will Muschamp’s kids anyway. South Carolina by far owns the better of these two defenses, and I firmly believe Bentley will have success throwing on the Aggies. If the front seven is able to generate some pressure and get to Kellen Mond, they’re going to be able to ugly this game up enough to stick in it all the way through. Though Texas A&M has gone on to win eight of the last 10 times it was favored at home, it only covered two of those games and enters this tilt losers of six straight in the home chalk role. Hold your nose and take the points with the Cocks.
College Football Odds: Aggies 33, Gamecocks 30
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