College Football ATS Picks - South Florida at UCF Game Preview

South-Florida-at-UCF

The UCF Knights will play their one true rival on Black Friday in an attempt to finish up the regular season undefeated. UCF is 10-0 and looking like one of the top teams in the country heading into this game. Only one team has finished within single digits of the Knights this season, and that was a solid SMU team, who got a little lucky to stay so close. The South Florida Bulls will have their work cut out for them if they are going to keep it within the number.

Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Friday, November 24, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida. This game will be broadcast on ABC.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Florida +9.5
UCF -9.5

Odds Analysis

UCF is 6-3-1 ATS on the season. The Knights covered each of their first five games, but then had trouble covering large spreads against Austin Peay, SMU, and Cincinnati. Only SMU kept it close though as UCF was favored by 43.5 and 39 points against the other two schools. The offense has been phenomenal this season and the over has cashed in five of their last seven games.

The Bulls are 9-1 SU this season and have looked good against their schedule full of creampuffs. South Florida has been favored by double digits in every game this season coming into its matchup against UCF, but is just 4-6 ATS. Under is 7-3 in South Florida games this season.

Key Stat

UCF’s offense has been absolutely fantastic this season. Scott Frost has been turning heads all season long with a fast-paced option attack that you can throw out of. The Knights have one of the five most productive offenses in college football and are averaging 7.6 yards per play, second-best in the nation.

Frost has made McKenzie Milton into one of the top signal callers in the country. Milton is completing almost 70 percent of his passes and is averaging a staggering 10.6 yards per pass attempt. He isn’t making mistakes with the ball either, throwing just five interceptions on the year.

Additionally, Milton has helped turn this into an offense that is deadly on the ground. He is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and the Knights as a whole have run for over 2,000 yards and 33 touchdowns on the year. The only time that he faltered was against SMU when he threw two picks.

Coaching Angle

Both of these coaches might not be here next season. Scott Frost is the hottest coaching name in college football right now. He has been linked to his alma mater, Nebraska, and Florida is supposedly after him too now that Chip Kelly has decided to explore his options further.

Frost has publicly stated that he wants to wait until after the AAC Championship Game to field offers, but his cell phone must be burning up by now. He has turned UCF from nothing into a contender in just two years and there are programs around the country that are ready to toss tens of millions of dollars at him.

Charlie Strong has only been at USF for one season, but there is already talk of him taking another Power Five job. The Bulls have looked good this season and with so many coaching vacancies open, Strong is going to get serious consideration.

Free ATS Pick

One of the more underrated stories this season has been the decline of Quinton Flowers. Flowers was phenomenal in his final season with Willie Taggart in 2016, but has not been able to find the same form this season. His numbers are down across the board and his completion percentage has dropped nine points and he is averaging over two yards less per carry than he did last season.

That’s why I’m going to lay the chalk with UCF in this one. The Knights will be able to score on the Bulls, while Flowers will have trouble against a fast defense.

College Football Odds: UCF 38, South Florida 20

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