College Football ATS Picks - Stanford at San Diego State Game Preview

Stanford is 1-1 on the year but the loss came on the road to a tough USC team, which is forgivable. The Cardinal want to bounce back in this one but must play well because a little slip-up could all of a sudden make this contest very uncomfortable.

This is one of the more intriguing non-conference matchups of this weekend’s slate as San Diego State proved last time out it is no pushover.

Watch this regular season Week 3 matchup live on Saturday, September 16, 2017, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium.

College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Stanford -9.5
San Diego State +9.5
Over/Under 46.5

Odds Analysis

Stanford is not quite a double-digit favorite, but the betting public likes the look of that line, as the Cardinal is grabbing nearly 83 percent of the early action to cover. The scoring total is low because both defenses are solid, and there is an even split among the wagers about whether the points will go “under” or “over” the total.

Stanford is a -330 favorite on the moneyline and is currently getting about two-thirds of the action. San Diego State is an intriguing play at +267 since it does have the home field advantage.

Player to Watch

Rashaad Penny -- The San Diego State running back was dynamic last time out against Arizona State. He finished the game with 18 carries for 216 yards and a touchdown while adding a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown and a receiving score. Penny has 39 carries for 413 yards and three touchdowns this season, averaging more than 10 yards per carry, after reaching 1,000 rushing yards last season as a backup.

While Penny has been fantastic in 2017, this is a much tougher situation. The Sun Devils’ defense is a mess, and Penny made that abundantly clear with his performance. However, Stanford is more talented and more sound in all aspects, so he may not get away so easily.

Even so, Penny is a supreme talent with NFL upside, and it would not be a surprise to see him get loose a couple of times for electric plays. If Penny does well, it will give San Diego State a chance at sticking close in this one and possibly even pulling the upset.

Key Stat

42. That’s the number of points Stanford gave up last time out to USC, which was a big surprise. The Trojans have a solid team led by star quarterback Sam Darnold, but the Cardinals year in and year out usually have a good defense.

While Darnold had a good game, the bigger concern was the rush defense, which allowed USC to gash it consistently. Penny is a big challenge and Stanford must use this week of practice to become more stout against the run.

Stanford only gave up seven points to Rice in its opener and hopes to get back to that type of performance.

Free ATS Pick

Stanford is still ranked No. 19 in the country, so this is a tough matchup for a smaller San Diego State team. However, the Aztecs are not getting enough respect. They controlled Arizona State on the road last time out and now go home for this contest.

San Diego State doesn’t get many chances to play bigger-conference foes and will be amped up and confident. Stanford has the more overall talent and should make enough big plays to win, but it’s going to be tight. Take San Diego State to cover in a low-scoring affair.

College Football Odds: Stanford 26, San Diego State 20

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