It’s almost an annual tradition at this point. For the third straight year, the Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide will square off in the College Football Playoff. Unlike the last two seasons, this time it will be a semifinal instead of a final, but that doesn’t make the game any less important in the eyes of the fans. Alabama lost the CFP National Championship last season to Deshaun Watson and the Tigers because of a last-second touchdown, but came out on top the year before even though Watson had a field day against this defense. This is sure to be the hottest ticket of bowl season thanks to these teams’ enormous fan bases and their proximity to the Big Easy.
Watch the Sugar Bowl live on Monday, January 1, 2018, at 8:45 p.m. ET at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama -2
Clemson +2
Odds Analysis
No team has a better resume than the Clemson Tigers. Clemson only suffered one loss all season, a road defeat at the hands of Syracuse after Kelly Bryant had been knocked out. Since then, this team has destroyed opponents. The Tigers ended the year with wins over Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, FSU, South Carolina, and Miami to earn the No. 1 seed in the CFP. They are 8-4-1 ATS on the season and covered each of their last two meetings against the Crimson Tide.
Alabama is going to be the favorite to win it all every year as long as Nick Saban is in Tuscaloosa. Despite not making the SEC Championship Game and failing to beat a Top 15 opponent this season, the Crimson Tide are favored in this one. Alabama has not been a good team to back this season and are just 5-7 ATS. Some of that is because this team is favored by a hefty amount in almost every game, but this is also the weakest we have seen the Crimson Tide in some time.
Matchup to Watch
The big question heading into this game is whether or not Alabama can run on Clemson. The Crimson Tide did have a good amount of success running the ball against Auburn’s front seven, but went away from it for whatever reason.
This will be the best front seven Alabama has seen all year, including practice. Clemson has the best pair of defensive tackles in the game in Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence and both are sure to be first round picks whenever they come out. Austin Bryant has been dominant on the edge in this system and Dorian O’Daniel has been phenomenal at outside linebacker too.
Jalen Hurts is a great running threat and Clemson is one of the few teams capable of keeping him in check on the ground. However, he is not much of a passer and if the Tigers can bottle up this running game, they should be able to shut down Alabama’s offense.
Player to Watch
Replacing a legend is never easy and it took some time for Kelly Bryant to come into his own as a passer. However, Bryant has now become one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the game and he has been able to lead this Clemson team back to the top.
Bryant was great in his last two outings, moving the ball with relative impunity against both South Carolina and Miami. It’s clear that both schools adopted a style of letting him not make plays with his legs, so he just punished them through the air.
He has experience against great defenses too. Bryant was solid against Auburn, NC State, and Florida State this season and took what the defense gave him, whether it be through the air or on the ground.
Free ATS Pick
If you replace the name Alabama with any other school, Clemson would be the favorite in this one. Saban has been dominant for so long though, that people are wary to go against the Tide.
I’m not one of them. The Tigers are the better team and should be the favorite here. They have a better resume and have looked better all year long. Clemson’s defensive front will rule the day and the Tigers will advance to the CFP National Championship for a third straight season.
College Football Odds: Clemson 30, Alabama 24
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