This will probably be the last time we see Lamar Jackson. Jackson has been outright phenomenal in each of these last two seasons. He won the Heisman Trophy after an amazing performance last year, and he was one of the finalists this season even though he arguably had an even better year. He has led the Louisville Cardinals to new heights during his three seasons on campus and will look for one last win when they take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Watch the Taxslayer Bowl live on Saturday, December 30, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi State +6.5
Louisville -6.5
Over/Under 63
Odds Analysis
Louisville came into this season with a lot of buzz since Jackson was returning for one more year, but the defense let the team down time and time again through the first two months. Louisville went 2-7 ATS during this time as the defense gave up 28 or more points seven times. The Cardinals were able to turn it around at the end of the year though, blasting Virginia, Syracuse, and Kentucky for three straight covers.
Despite losing to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, it was another banner year for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs won and covered six of their first eight games and routed LSU by 30 points.
However, now the Bulldogs will have to do it without most of their coaching staff. Dan Mullen and defensive coordinator Todd Grantham both left for Florida. Running backs coach Greg Knox will be the head coach for the bowl game before giving way to Joe Moorhead.
Key Injury
Unfortunately, star quarterback Nick Fitzgerald was injured in the season finale against Ole Miss. Fitzgerald had a fantastic season leading this offense and finished just 16 yards short of 1,000 on the season. He was great with the run-pass option and really shined in Mullen’s final season.
Now, the keys are in the hands of backup quarterback Keytaon Thompson. Thompson is a talented freshman from New Orleans, but hasn’t had to throw the ball much this season. He has completed under 50 percent of his passes on the year.
However, Thompson has shown that he is able to move the chains with his legs. He ran for 121 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss, nearly leading the Bulldogs to the win after Fitzgerald went down.
Player to Watch
Jackson has been a treat to watch this season. He has been able to make plays all year long with both his arm and his legs, and was amazingly the 11th leading rusher in the country. Jackson averaged 6.9 yards per carry and really turned it on at the end of the year. He surpassed 100 yards on the ground in each of Louisville’s last six games, and the offense scored at least 31 points each time.
Additionally, Jackson showed a little more poise as a passer. He completed more than 60 percent of his passes this season and averaged 8.7 yards per attempt. Those are both slight improvements on what he did last season. A good bit of that is thanks to better offensive line play. He was sacked 46 times last season despite being one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the country, and has been sacked half that much this year.
Free ATS Pick
Mississippi State had one of the better defenses in the country this season. Grantham relied on the blitz to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but while that worked against some signal callers it won’t work against Jackson.
Jackson has seen it all as defensive coordinators have tinkered with how to stop him. He will use that acquired knowledge and his natural playmaking ability to lead Louisville to a big win here.
College Football Odds: Louisville 45, Mississippi State 24
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